Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the stock index market, although there is some uncertainty at the end of the year due to partial profit - taking by funds, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips as policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. - In the bond market, short - term bonds are expected to fluctuate due to weak domestic demand and institutional behavior. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after over - selling [6]. - For precious metals, considering the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion, gold and silver prices are expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions [10]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, different metals have different trends. For example, copper is expected to be in a high - level shock, aluminum to fluctuate, and zinc to be cautious about price shocks [13][15][17]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range shock, and iron ore prices are expected to operate within a shock range [32][34]. - For energy and chemical products, different products have different strategies. For example, rubber can be short - term operated, and crude oil can be observed in the short - term [51][54]. - In the agricultural products market, different agricultural products such as hogs, eggs, and beans have different price trends and trading strategies [76][78][80]. Summary by Category Macro - financial Stock Index - Market Information: The central bank will conduct 400 billion yuan of MLF operations on December 25, 2025. Beijing has adjusted housing purchase restrictions, and multiple departments have urged e - commerce platforms to manage product quality. The Yanjiawo lithium mine in Yichun, Ningde is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [2]. - Strategy: End - of - year profit - taking by some funds brings uncertainty, but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: On December 24, multiple departments in Beijing optimized housing policies. The central bank conducted 26 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Wednesday, with a net withdrawal of 20.8 billion yuan [5]. - Strategy: The short - term bond market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship repair and rebound [6]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Shanghai gold fell 0.23%, and silver rose 1.54%. US employment data exceeded expectations, suppressing precious metal prices in the short - term [8]. - Strategy: It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and silver, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: Offshore RMB strengthened, and copper prices rose. LME inventory decreased, and domestic demand was weak [12]. - Strategy: Copper prices are expected to be in a high - level shock, with a reference operating range provided [13]. Aluminum - Market Information: Aluminum prices rose. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and overseas inventory increased. Trading was light [14]. - Strategy: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate, with a reference operating range provided [15]. Zinc - Market Information: Zinc prices rose. Zinc concentrate inventory increased, and LME zinc inventory increased [16]. - Strategy: Be cautious about price shocks caused by the departure of precious metal funds [17]. Lead - Market Information: Lead prices rose. Lead concentrate inventory increased, and domestic lead supply tightened marginally [18]. - Strategy: Lead prices are expected to be strong in a wide - range in the short - term [19]. Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices rose. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices increased slightly [20]. - Strategy: Although the surplus pressure is large, the short - term bottom may have appeared. It is recommended to observe [20]. Tin - Market Information: Tin prices fell. Supply was stable at a high level but lacked upward momentum, and demand was weak [21]. - Strategy: It is recommended to observe, with reference operating ranges provided [22]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Information: Carbonate lithium prices rose. The Yanjiawo lithium mine is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [23][24]. - Strategy: It is recommended to observe or lightly buy options, with a reference operating range provided [24]. Alumina - Market Information: Alumina prices rose. Ore prices were expected to decline, and inventory was accumulating [25]. - Strategy: It is recommended to observe in the short - term, with a reference operating range provided [26]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: Stainless steel prices rose. Indonesian nickel ore production targets were adjusted, and spot trading was light [27]. - Strategy: It is recommended to observe and pay attention to policy implementation [27]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: Casting aluminum alloy prices rose. Cost was firm, and supply was disrupted [28]. - Strategy: Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: Steel prices rose slightly. Rebar supply and demand increased, and hot - rolled coil production decreased [31]. - Strategy: Steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range shock, and pay attention to policy impacts [32]. Iron Ore - Market Information: Iron ore prices rose slightly. Overseas shipments decreased, and steel mill inventory was at a low level [33]. - Strategy: Iron ore prices are expected to operate within a shock range [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: Glass prices rose, and soda ash prices rose slightly. Glass demand was weak, and soda ash inventory was accumulating [35][37]. - Strategy: Glass is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and it is recommended to short soda ash [36][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fluctuated slightly. Spot prices were stable [39]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the impact of manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices fell. Industrial silicon supply decreased slightly, and polysilicon demand was weak [42][44]. - Strategy: Industrial silicon is expected to follow market fluctuations, and polysilicon prices are unstable [43][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market Information: Rubber prices rose. There are different views on the market from bulls and bears [48]. - Strategy: It is recommended to operate short - term and hold a hedging position [51]. Crude Oil - Market Information: Crude oil prices rose, and refined oil inventories decreased [52]. - Strategy: It is recommended to observe in the short - term and test OPEC's export - supporting willingness [54]. Methanol - Market Information: Methanol prices fluctuated. Port inventory decreased, but future pressure remains [55]. - Strategy: It is recommended to observe, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level [56]. Urea - Market Information: Urea prices rose. Demand improved, and supply is expected to decline seasonally [57]. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long at low prices [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: Pure benzene prices fell, and styrene prices rose. Supply and demand had different trends [59]. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [61]. PVC - Market Information: PVC prices rose. Supply was strong, and demand was weak [62]. - Strategy: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [63]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply was high, and inventory was accumulating [64]. - Strategy: Be cautious about the risk of price rebound due to increased maintenance [65]. PTA - Market Information: PTA prices rose. Supply was under high - level maintenance, and demand was affected by the off - season [66]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips based on expectations [67]. Para - Xylene - Market Information: Para - xylene prices fell. Supply was high, and demand was weak [68]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: PE prices rose. Supply was high, and demand was in the off - season [70]. - Strategy: Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread at low prices [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: PP prices rose. Supply pressure was large, and demand was seasonally weak [72]. - Strategy: Wait for the supply - surplus situation to change in the first quarter of 2026 [73]. Agricultural Products Hogs - Market Information: Hog prices rose. Supply was large, and demand was stable [75]. - Strategy: Keep a short - term shock view and pay attention to long - term support [76]. Eggs - Market Information: Egg prices were stable or fell. Supply was sufficient, and demand was average [77]. - Strategy: Short on rallies in the short - term and pay attention to long - term pressure [78]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: CBOT soybeans rose. Domestic soybean inventory was high, and bean meal inventory increased [79]. - Strategy: Bean meal is expected to fluctuate [80]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: Palm oil production and export data were mixed. Domestic oils and fats rebounded [81]. - Strategy: Observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [82]. Sugar - Market Information: Sugar prices rebounded. Imported sugar supply decreased, and international production data was mixed [85]. - Strategy: International sugar prices may rebound after February, and domestic sugar prices may continue to rebound in the short - term [86]. Cotton - Market Information: Cotton prices rose. Xinjiang may reduce cotton planting area, and import data was mixed [87][88]. - Strategy: Wait for a callback to go long [89].
宏观金融类：文字早评2025/12/25星期四-20251225
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-12-25 01:43