国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The trends are described as high - level fluctuations for iron ore, wide - range oscillations for rebar and hot - rolled coil, wide - range oscillations due to market information disturbances for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, repeated oscillations for coke and coking coal, and low - level oscillations for logs [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Price and Position Data: The previous day's futures closing price was 779.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase. The previous day's position was 553,717 lots, a decrease of 317 lots. Among imported ores, the price of Carajás fines (65%) dropped 3.0 yuan/ton to 869.0 yuan/ton, PB fines (61.5%) dropped 3.0 yuan/ton to 787.0 yuan/ton, etc. The basis for different varieties decreased [5]. - Macro and Industry News: On December 22, the 12 - month loan prime rate (LPR) was announced, with the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. There was no change from the previous month [5]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Price and Position Data: For rebar RB2605, the previous day's closing price was 3,136 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton with a 0.06% increase. For hot - rolled coil HC2605, the closing price was 3,285 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase. Spot prices in most regions remained unchanged [8]. - Macro and Industry News: According to the weekly data from SteelUnion on December 18, rebar production increased by 2.90 thousand tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 16.80 thousand tons, and the total production of five major varieties decreased by 8.25 thousand tons. Total inventory decreased, and apparent demand for rebar increased while that for hot - rolled coil decreased [9]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Price and Position Data: In futures, the prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese had varying degrees of increase. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese and related raw materials are provided, and the price differences between futures and spot, near - and far - month contracts, and cross - varieties also changed [12]. - Macro and Industry News: On December 24, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions were reported. Some silicon - iron furnaces were shut down and restarted, and some silicon - manganese furnaces were newly ignited. The production of silicon - manganese in some northern regions decreased, and the production of silicon - iron in Qinghai decreased [13][14]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - Price and Position Data: The previous day's futures closing price of coking coal JM2605 was 1,132 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan/ton with a 0.6% increase, and that of coke J2605 was 1,746 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton with a 0.3% increase. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions remained unchanged, while some prices changed [15]. - Macro and Industry News: On December 22, the 12 - month loan prime rate (LPR) was announced, with the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. There was no change from the previous month [16]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [18]. Logs - Price and Position Data: The closing prices of different contracts of logs had small increases, while trading volumes decreased significantly. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable, with only a few showing small changes [20]. - Macro and Industry News: On December 22, the 12 - month loan prime rate (LPR) was announced, with the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. There was no change from the previous month [22]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [22].