贵金属：贵金属日报-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the perspective of overseas medium - term monetary policy trends, the Fed's interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion will lead to a continuously strong performance of precious metals prices. It is recommended to hold existing long positions. The reference operating range for the Shanghai Gold main contract is 983 - 1100 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver main contract is 15519 - 18000 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold fell 0.23% to 1010.30 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 1.54% to 17211.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold was reported at 4505.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver was reported at 71.88 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.15%, and the US dollar index was reported at 97.93 [2] - The recently announced US employment data for the week exceeded expectations, suppressing the short - term prices of gold and silver. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 20 was 214,000, lower than the expected and previous value of 224,000. After the data was announced, the prices of gold and silver rose briefly and then fell [2] 3.2 Economic Data - The preliminary value of the annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%, higher than the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.8%, but it was significantly affected by medical insurance prices. The US GDP price index in the third quarter was 3.8%, higher than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 2.1%. The year - on - year value of the US PCE price index in the third quarter was 2.7%, higher than the previous value of 2.4%, indicating that the economic data did not reflect the improvement of the US economic fundamentals but rather the resilience of price levels [3] 3.3 Fed Chairmanship and Interest Rate Expectations - Trump clearly stated that "those who oppose him will never get the position of Fed Chair", which strengthened the market's expectation of a dovish new Fed Chair and the pricing of the Fed's subsequent interest rate cuts. The CME interest rate monitor shows that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the March and July 2026 FOMC meetings [3] 3.4 Key Data of Gold and Silver - Gold: COMEX gold's CFTC - reported weekly open interest increased 8.91% to 471,100 lots, and inventory remained unchanged at 1,125 tons. LBMA gold's closing price rose 0.63% to 4449.40 US dollars/ounce. SHFE gold's closing price rose 0.04% to 1014.68 yuan/gram, trading volume increased 29.19% to 491,200 lots, and open interest decreased 3.00% to 359,800 lots. The precipitation of funds decreased 2.96% to 58.418 billion yuan. AuT + D's trading volume decreased 10.36% to 55.63 tons, and open interest increased 2.36% to 229.72 tons [5] - Silver: COMEX silver's CFTC - reported weekly open interest decreased 1.19% to 152,900 lots, and inventory increased 0.10% to 14,039 tons. LBMA silver's closing price rose 0.75% to 69.74 US dollars/ounce. SHFE silver's closing price rose 7.10% to 17,609.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume increased 38.32% to 3,301,300 lots, and open interest increased 3.06% to 819,200 lots. The precipitation of funds increased 10.38% to 38.949 billion yuan. AgT + D's trading volume increased 23.70% to 1010.78 tons, and open interest decreased 3.02% to 3184.882 tons [5]