烧碱：反弹高度受限

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Near - term, the rebound of caustic soda is restricted, with contracts 2601 and 2602 having limited continuous rebound space due to factors like high production, high inventory, and negative feedback from the alumina industry. However, far - month contracts are undervalued and have long - allocation value with cost support, but significant price increases require large - scale supply - side maintenance or production cuts [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - On December 24, the Shandong market was divided. The eastern part had stable prices with low inventory pressure, while the western part faced poor sales and low prices due to reduced external demand. The 01 - contract futures price was 2250, the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong was 710, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2219, and the basis was - 31 [2]. 3.2 Market Condition Analysis - The rebound of caustic soda is driven by near - term capital shifting and expected supply cuts next year. But in terms of fundamentals, caustic soda will have high production and high inventory around the Spring Festival. Demand is weak due to low alumina profits and seasonal decline in non - aluminum downstream demand and export pressure. Supply is under pressure as winter is a low - maintenance season for chlor - alkali enterprises. Near - term contracts are suppressed by warehouse receipts, while far - term contracts are undervalued but need supply - side changes for significant price increases [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being integers from - 2 to 2 [4].