国泰君安期货所长早读-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment: - Strongly Bullish (Trend Intensity: +2): None - Bullish (Trend Intensity: +1): Nickel, Stainless Steel, Bean Meal [49][185] - Neutral (Trend Intensity: 0): Gold, Silver, Copper, Zinc, Lead, Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy, Platinum, Palladium, MEG, Logs, PX, PTA, Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, Asphalt, LLDPE, PP, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Glass, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Soda Ash, LPG, Propylene, PVC, Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil, Container Freight Index (European Line), Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Offset Printing Paper, Pure Benzene, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Corn, Sugar, Cotton, Eggs, Hogs, Peanuts [16][19][81][185] - Bearish (Trend Intensity: -1): Carbonate Lithium, Platinum, Palladium [42][52] - Strongly Bearish (Trend Intensity: -2): None 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Macroeconomic Policy The People's Bank of China's Monetary Policy Committee's Q4 2025 meeting decided to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment efforts, and strengthening the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [7]. 2.2 Commodity Market - Silver: Although there is a short - term adjustment demand at high levels, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged due to the unsolvable global inventory contradiction. There is a possibility of intensified contradictions until 2026 [8]. - Nickel: The fundamental situation is weak, but news and capital disturbances are intensifying. There is a risk of a catch - up increase due to Indonesian news. There are also structural opportunities, such as internal - external positive spreads and nickel - iron and futures spreads [10]. - MEG: Affected by the planned shutdown of a Taiwanese plant next month, the price increased. However, high port inventories and polyester production cut expectations will limit the price increase [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pre - market Focus - Central Bank Policy: The Q4 2025 meeting of the People's Bank of China's Monetary Policy Committee decided to continue the moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments [7]. - Recommended by the Director: Silver is highly recommended, with recent price fluctuations driven by macro - liquidity and the performance of platinum and palladium. Nickel has a weak fundamental situation but potential for a catch - up increase due to Indonesian news. MEG rose due to the planned shutdown of a Taiwanese plant [8][10][12]. 3.2 Commodity Research 3.2.1 Precious Metals - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [16]. - Silver: High - level adjustment is expected, with a long - term upward trend supported by inventory contradictions [8]. 3.2.2 Base Metals - Copper: The market is strong overseas but weak domestically, limiting price increases [23]. - Zinc: It is in a range - bound oscillation [26]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports the price [29]. - Tin: Supply has been disrupted [32]. - Aluminum: It is in a range - bound oscillation, while alumina is at the bottom and moving sideways [36]. 3.2.3 Industrial Metals - Nickel: There is capital game in the market, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [44]. - Stainless Steel: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is affected by Indonesian nickel ore news [45]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - PTA: Cost support is strong, and the price trend is upward [81]. - MEG: The valuation has bottomed out and rebounded, but there is medium - term pressure [82]. - Rubber: It is oscillating strongly [83]. - Synthetic Rubber: It is entering an oscillating phase with weak current situation and strong expectations [86]. - Asphalt: The spot price is temporarily stable [89]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: There is a short - term rebound, but the height is limited [177]. - Soybean Oil: The impact of US soybeans is limited, and range - bound operation is recommended [177]. - Bean Meal: Overnight US soybeans rose, and Dalian bean meal may rebound and oscillate [183]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot market [186]. - Sugar: There is an expectation of a weak basis [190]. - Cotton: The futures price is oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment [195]. - Eggs: They are in an oscillating adjustment phase [202]. - Hogs: Speculative demand has been fulfilled [204]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the purchase by oil mills [209].