PP：PDH利润再度压缩，盘面企稳震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Report's Core View - The cost of crude oil is expected to fluctuate narrowly, providing limited support to the PP cost side. The chemical configuration in the market is differentiated, and the hedging logic of aromatics - olefins is continuously strengthened. With no new production before the 2605 contract on the supply side, the game of existing supply and demand intensifies. On the demand side, new orders from downstream industries weaken, and downstream factories' procurement remains cautious, leading to weak demand. Overall, the fundamentals at the end of the year provide limited support. Although the PDH profit is at a new low, upstream companies have locked in raw materials and made some pre - sales earlier, so the willingness to reduce production is not strong. It is expected that PP will continue to be weak. With the deep loss of PDH profit, attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of PP2605 yesterday was 6278, with a daily increase of 1.95%. The trading volume was 566,939, and the position decreased by 18,588. The 05 - contract basis was - 158 (compared to - 138 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 22 (compared to - 38 the previous day) [1] - Spot Price: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6020 yuan/ton, 6120 yuan/ton, and 6220 yuan/ton respectively yesterday, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1] Spot News - The futures market rebounded with fluctuations, but it had limited impact on the spot market. At the end of the month, traders focused on fulfilling their planned volumes and actively sold goods, with limited increase in quotes. Downstream industries were still worried about the future market and purchased cautiously. The daily trading volume in the market was lower than that of PE. Warehouse receipts remained at a high level, and new orders from downstream industries were insufficient. Some PDH devices are planned to stop production in January, but the scale is not large. The end - of - year demand lacks flexibility, and the industry's willingness to hold goods is limited in the continuous decline, putting pressure on the basis. The prices in the PP US - dollar market partially declined. Overseas suppliers were not enthusiastic about offering prices to China, and downstream industries continued to make rigid - demand purchases, with no improvement in trading [1] Market Condition Analysis - The cost of crude oil is expected to fluctuate narrowly, providing limited support to the PP cost side. The chemical configuration in the market is differentiated, and the hedging logic of aromatics - olefins is continuously strengthened. With no new production before the 2605 contract on the supply side, the game of existing supply and demand intensifies. On the demand side, new orders from downstream industries weaken, and downstream factories' procurement remains cautious, leading to weak demand. Overall, the fundamentals at the end of the year provide limited support. Although the PDH profit is at a new low, upstream companies have locked in raw materials and made some pre - sales earlier, so the willingness to reduce production is not strong. It is expected that PP will continue to be weak. With the deep loss of PDH profit, attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is 0 [3]