国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2][4]. - Silver: Undergoing high - level adjustment [2][4]. - Copper: The external market is strong while the domestic market is weak, which restricts price increases [2][8]. - Zinc: Trading in a range [2][11]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports the price [2][14]. - Tin: Supply is facing new disruptions [2][17]. - Aluminum: Trading in a range; Alumina is bottom - sideways; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][20]. - Platinum: The overseas market is closed, and a correction is to be watched out for [2][22]. - Palladium: Investment sentiment has shifted, and a large - scale decline is expected [2][23]. - Nickel: There is capital game on the market, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [2][27]. - Stainless steel: Both supply and demand in the fundamentals are weak, and there are disturbances from news about Indonesian nickel mines [2][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2602, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2602 showed varying degrees of increase, with daily increases of 1.34%, 1.44%, and 0.77% respectively. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 decreased by 2,375, while that of Comex Gold 2602 increased by 42,965 [4]. - Inventory: Shanghai gold inventory increased by 1,995 kilograms, and Comex gold inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) increased by 114,168 [4]. - Macro and Industry News: The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy; the Beijing property market has new policies; the US employment market has warmed up [4]. Silver - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2602, Silver T + D, and Comex Silver 2602 all rose, with daily increases of 1.50%, 1.52%, and 3.65% respectively. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 decreased by 474,555 [4]. - Inventory: Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 1,805 kilograms, and Comex silver inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) decreased by 3,083,409 [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Similar to gold, and the Silver LOF hit the daily limit again during the session [4][7]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 2.31%, and the LME Copper 3M electronic disk increased by 0.65%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index increased by 297,908, and the LME Copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 8,111 [8]. - Inventory: Shanghai copper inventory increased by 2,679 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 1,550 tons [8]. - Macro and Industry News: The People's Bank of China's policy, Beijing's property market policy, and the US employment market situation; Glencore acquired a copper project in Peru; Peru extended the temporary licenses of small - scale miners; Kazakhstan's refined copper production increased; China's copper ore imports increased [8][10]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 0.61%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 0.60%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 37,673, and the LME Zinc trading volume increased by 2,888 [11]. - Inventory: Shanghai zinc inventory increased by 1,068 tons, and LME zinc inventory increased by 7,900 tons [11]. - News: The People's Bank of China's policy and hints from the US Treasury Secretary about the Fed's future direction [12]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 1.35%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.66%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 23,412, and the LME Lead trading volume increased by 2,053 [14]. - Inventory: Shanghai lead inventory decreased by 152 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 4,200 tons [14]. - News: Similar to copper, including the People's Bank of China's policy, Beijing's property market policy, and the US employment market situation [15]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 1.27%, and the LME Tin 3M electronic disk increased by 0.25%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 11,222, and the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 9 [17]. - Inventory: Shanghai tin inventory increased by 655 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 50 tons [17]. - Macro and Industry News: Similar to gold and silver, and France passed a short - term budget to avoid a government shutdown [17][18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 22,330 yuan/ton, and the LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,957 US dollars/ton. The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased by 85,119. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,554 yuan/ton [20]. - Inventory and Cost: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory increased. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 5,823.24 yuan/ton [20]. - News: The US dollar may have its worst year since 2003, and the Japanese finance minister hinted at possible intervention in the yen [21]. Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices of platinum and palladium futures showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum and NYMEX Platinum decreased, while the trading volume of NYMEX Palladium increased [23]. - Inventory and ETF: The platinum ETF inventory increased by 5,271 ounces, and the palladium ETF inventory decreased by 384 ounces [23]. - Macro and Industry News: News about international relations and China's central bank's policy [25][26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 128,000 yuan/ton, and the stainless - steel main contract was 13,075 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 1,095,331 [28]. - Industry News: An Indonesian nickel mining area was taken over, China suspended a non - official subsidy for Russian copper and nickel imports, and Indonesia implemented sanctions on mining companies and adjusted policies related to nickel mines [28][29][31].