工业硅持续反弹，多晶硅震荡上涨

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, after the production cut in the southwest region, the supply - demand pattern may improve, but the inventory accumulation pattern remains. The price of the industrial silicon market is mainly affected by the supply - demand pattern and cost support, showing a slight upward trend. The current valuation is low, and with the influence of Xinjiang's environmental protection policy, the market may have room to rise [1][3]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand situation has recently eased. Silicon material enterprises are reducing production to match the off - season demand in the first quarter, which drives up the unit comprehensive cost. The market is affected by both the anti - involution policy and the weak reality. After the establishment of the platform company, the subsequent production and sales restrictions need to be monitored. The market is expected to fluctuate mainly [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Content Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - Futures Market: On December 24, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a fluctuating upward trend. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,600 yuan/ton and closed at 8,780 yuan/ton, a change of 145 yuan/ton (1.68%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 213,776 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on December 23 was 9,175 lots, a change of 156 lots from the previous day [1]. - Spot Market: The spot price of industrial silicon was basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton (- 50 yuan/ton), and the price of 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton (- 50 yuan/ton). The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, the Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - Inventory: As of December 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 553,000 tons, a change of - 1.43% from the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse inventory was 138,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse inventory (including the part not registered as warehouse receipts and the spot warehouse) was 415,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week [1]. Consumption End - Organosilicon: The quoted price of organosilicon DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 yuan/ton. The weekly production of organosilicon fluctuated slightly compared with the previous week. In early December, monomer factories successively reduced production, and the production in December decreased compared with November. The reduction in industrial silicon consumption in December may be around 5,000 tons [2]. - Polysilicon: The weekly production of polysilicon was basically stable. The planned production in December was around 114,000 tons, a slight decrease from November, and the change in the demand for industrial silicon was limited [2]. - Aluminum - Silicon Alloy: The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable. The secondary aluminum enterprises in Chongqing that had reduced production due to air pollution last week maintained the production - reduction state this week. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate was expected to be mainly stable and weak [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation. - Others: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - Futures Market: On December 24, 2025, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures oscillated upward, opening at 58,580 yuan/ton and closing at 59,225 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of - 0.91% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 131,603 lots (134,949 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on the day was 153,313 lots [3]. - Spot Market: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 49.70 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg [3]. - Inventory and Production: The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 293,000 tons, with a month - on - month change of 0.00%; the silicon wafer inventory was 21.50 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 7.73%. The weekly production of polysilicon was 25,000 tons, a month - on - month change of - 0.40%; the silicon wafer production was 10.67 GW, a month - on - month change of - 12.18% [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. - Others: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [6].