情绪持续发酵，镍不锈钢反弹延续

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, influenced by Indonesian policy changes, the bullish sentiment is high, and nickel prices are expected to maintain an overall rebound trend. However, high inventory and oversupply in the fundamentals will drag down the rebound strength [3]. - For the stainless - steel market, although the weak supply - demand situation has not changed fundamentally, short - term cost support and technical strength provide price resilience. Investors should pay attention to the implementation progress of Indonesian policies and inventory changes to seize the opportunity of oscillating upward [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - Futures: On December 24, 2025, the main contract 2602 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,280 yuan/ton and closed at 123,440 yuan/ton, a 3.92% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 386,986 (+190,610) lots, and the open interest was 134,454 (+21,822) lots. It showed a strong and volatile trend with significant capital inflow, driven by the expectation of Indonesian quota contraction and external market, but restricted by high inventory and differences between long and short positions. The continuous weakening of the US dollar increased the attractiveness of commodities, while weak consumption and high inventory limited the rebound strength [1]. - Nickel Ore: The trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market was fair, and prices remained stable overall. In China's southern region, 1.3% nickel ore was traded at CIF $39.5. In the Philippines, the 1.3% nickel ore tender at the northern Benguet mine was settled at FOB $33.5, with a price increase. Considering rainfall, the shipping efficiency was fair. Downstream iron plants were still in losses, and their attitude of pressing prices for raw material nickel ore purchases might ease. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in December dropped by $0.11 - $0.18 per wet ton, and the current mainstream premium was +25, with a premium range of +25 - 26, expected to remain flat [1]. - Spot: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 133,800 yuan/ton, up 5,400 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Nickel prices rose significantly, and spot trading was weak. The spot premiums of refined nickel brands decreased slightly. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 150 yuan/ton to 6,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 38,621 (-301) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 254,604 (+216) tons [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations [4]. - Inter - delivery: None [4]. - Inter - variety: None [4]. - Futures - spot: None [4]. - Options: None [4]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - Futures: On December 24, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2602 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,905 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 168,990 (-497) lots, and the open interest was 100,771 (-4,171) lots. It showed a mild rebound with increasing volume and price, and the fluctuation was relatively stable, consistent with the strong continuation of Shanghai nickel's sharp rise the previous day [4]. - Spot: The futures market weakened, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, mainly purchasing on - demand. Inventory depletion slowed down. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,050 (+75) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,025 (+75) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 100 - 350 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 4.00 yuan/nickel point to 893.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - Unilateral: Buy on dips [6]. - Inter - delivery: None [6]. - Inter - variety: None [6]. - Futures - spot: None [6]. - Options: None [6].