烧碱山东去库江苏累库

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Views - PVC is affected by macro - sentiment and rebounds, with a slight improvement in supply - demand. However, the overall supply is still abundant, and the improvement in supply - demand is limited. Attention should be paid to subsequent device maintenance and macro - policy dynamics [3] - The current spot price of caustic soda is mainly stable with regional differentiation. Shandong is destocking while Jiangsu is accumulating inventory. The supply - side operating rate is slightly down, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine, device dynamics, and the implementation of specific macro anti - involution rules [4][5] Group 3: Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,781 yuan/ton (+43), the East China basis is - 301 yuan/ton (-3), and the South China basis is - 281 yuan/ton (+7) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,480 yuan/ton (+40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,500 yuan/ton (+50) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (-30), the calcium carbide price is 2,780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 110 yuan/ton (+24), the production gross profit of PVC by calcium carbide method is - 986 yuan/ton (+116), the production gross profit of PVC by ethylene method is - 469 yuan/ton (+51), and the PVC export profit is - 6.0 US dollars/ton (-5.1) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 32.9 million tons (-1.6), the social inventory of PVC is 51.1 million tons (-0.7), the operating rate of PVC by calcium carbide method is 77.01% (-2.12%), the operating rate of PVC by ethylene method is 74.06% (-2.61%), and the overall operating rate of PVC is 76.12% (-2.27%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 76.2 million tons (+11.4) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,250 yuan/ton (+31), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 0 yuan/ton (-31) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 720 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,140 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,229 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 585.0 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 226.96 yuan/ton (+20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 393.99 yuan/ton (+53.60) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 46.47 million tons (+0.76), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 3.51 million tons (+0.06), and the operating rate of caustic soda is 84.50% (-1.70%) [2] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The operating rate of alumina is 85.00% (-1.11%), the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 62.06% (-0.68%), and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber is 89.62% (+0.00%) [2] Group 4: Market Analysis PVC - Macro - level policies boost demand expectations, and PVC rebounds due to macro - sentiment. The supply decreases slightly, but the supply side is still abundant. The downstream operation declines slightly, and the export orders are resilient. The social inventory decreases slightly, and the upstream comprehensive chlor - alkali production profit is repaired to some extent. The high - level warehouse receipts suppress the futures price. Overseas factory news provides some support [3] Caustic Soda - The spot price is stable with regional differences. Shandong is destocking and Jiangsu is accumulating inventory. The supply - side operating rate decreases slightly, but the overall operation is at a high level. The liquid chlorine price is positive, and there is a risk of further decline. The alumina demand is stable, and the non - aluminum demand weakens [4][5] Group 5: Strategies PVC - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [6] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [6]