宝城期货国债期货早报（2025年12月25日）-20251225

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The TL2603 variety is expected to experience short - and medium - term oscillations, with a weaker intraday trend, and overall it will be in an oscillatory consolidation phase. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term expectations of monetary easing [1]. - For financial futures in the stock index sector (including TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the long run, the monetary policy adheres to a moderately loose tone, and the environment for next year is expected to be relatively loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the urgency for monetary easing is not high, and Sino - US relations will be relatively stable before April next year, limiting the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. Overall, Treasury bond futures face both upward pressure and downward support, and are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | View Reference | Core Logic | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | Oscillatory | Oscillatory | Weaker | Oscillatory consolidation | Low short - term probability of interest rate cuts, long - term expectations of monetary easing [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Varieties: TL, T, TF, TS - Intraday View: Weaker - Medium - term View: Oscillatory - Reference View: Oscillatory consolidation - Core Logic: Treasury bond futures were in a narrow - range oscillatory consolidation yesterday. The long - term monetary policy adheres to a moderately loose tone, and the environment for next year is expected to be relatively loose. The current implied expectation of interest rate cuts in the Treasury bond yield is weak, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the urgency for monetary easing is not high, and Sino - US relations will be relatively stable before April next year, limiting the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. Overall, they are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]