铂：外盘休市，警惕回调，铂：投资情绪转向，料下行幅度较大

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For platinum, the external market is closed, and there is a need to be vigilant about a potential correction [1]. - For palladium, the investment sentiment has shifted, and it is expected to decline significantly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Price Data - Platinum futures 2606 closed at 657.65 with a 6.08% increase; the gold exchange platinum closed at 606.99 with an 8.08% increase; the New York platinum main - continuous contract closed at 2272.90 with a - 2.03% change; the London spot platinum closed at 2253.00 with a - 1.40% change [2]. - Palladium futures 2606 closed at 578.45 with an 8.62% increase; the RMB spot palladium closed at 459.00 with a 5.03% increase; the New York palladium main - continuous contract closed at 1821.00 with a - 7.28% change; the London spot palladium closed at 1723.50 with a - 7.24% change [2]. - Trading Volume and Position Data - For platinum, Guangzhou platinum trading volume was 26,564 kg (a decrease of 128,849 from the previous day), and the position was 48,014 kg (an increase of 3,582); NYMEX platinum trading volume was 64,622 kg (a decrease of 42,733), and the position was 101,066 kg (an increase of 59,339) [2]. - For palladium, Guangzhou palladium trading volume was 102,858 kg (a decrease of 79,236), and the position was 25,929 kg (an increase of 3,124); NYMEX palladium trading volume was 47,990 kg (an increase of 7,241), and the position was 67,992 kg (an increase of 579) [2]. - ETF Position and Inventory Data - Platinum ETF position (in ounces, previous day) was 3,275,143, an increase of 5,271; palladium ETF position (in ounces, previous day) was 1,138,567, a decrease of 384 [2]. - NYMEX platinum inventory (in ounces, previous day) was 644,038, an increase of 19,305; NYMEX palladium inventory (in ounces, previous day) was 195,834, an increase of 264 [2]. - Spread Data - For platinum, the spread between PT9995 and PT2606 was - 50.66 (a change of 7.68 from the previous day); the spread between Guangzhou platinum 2606 and 2610 contracts was - 35.45 (a change of - 33.05); the cost of buying Guangzhou platinum 2606 and selling 2610 for inter - period arbitrage was 8.11 (a change of 0.49); the spread between the gold exchange platinum and London platinum was 97.89 (a change of 53.36) [2]. - For palladium, the spread between the RMB spot palladium price and PD2606 was - 119.45 (a change of - 23.90); the spread between Guangzhou palladium 2606 and 2610 contracts was - 4.20 (a change of - 1.55); the cost of buying Guangzhou palladium 2606 and selling 2610 for inter - period arbitrage was 7.13 (a change of 0.55); the spread between the RMB spot palladium and London palladium was 70 (a change of 53) [2]. - Exchange Rate Data - The US dollar index was 97.95, a 0.05% increase; the US dollar against the on - shore RMB (CNY spot) was 7.03, a - 0.14% change; the US dollar against the off - shore RMB (CNH spot) was 7.02, a - 0.18% change; the US dollar against the RMB (6M forward) was 6.95, a - 0.08% change [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - US officials hinted that they currently prefer sanctions to military action to achieve their goals in Venezuela [5]. - Zelensky announced a 20 - point draft of the Russia - Ukraine "peace plan", but the territorial issue remains unresolved. Russia believes that the latest US peace plan proposal lacks key terms and hopes to make revisions [5]. - Japan plans to cut the issuance of ultra - long - term government bonds in fiscal year 2026 to about 17 trillion yen, the lowest level in 17 years [5]. - The Cambodian Ministry of Defense said that Thai fighter jets dropped cluster bombs, and the Thai military said they targeted only military objectives [5]. - The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its fourth - quarter regular meeting, stating that it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment [5]. - The People's Bank of China conducted 400 billion yuan of MLF operations on December 25 [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The platinum trend intensity is - 1; the palladium trend intensity is - 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].