镍：盘面资金博弈，追高仍需谨慎，不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, there is capital game in the market, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals show both weak supply and demand, and are disturbed by news about Indonesian nickel mines [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel main contract is 128,000, and the closing price of stainless - steel main contract is 13,075. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel main contract is 1,095,331, and that of stainless - steel main contract is 365,097 [2]. - Industrial Chain Data: The price of 1 imported nickel is 127,200, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 893, and the price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 13,050 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesian Nickel Mine News: Due to violation of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month. The Indonesian energy and mineral resources department imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The government plans to revise the benchmark price formula of nickel ore products in early 2026 and may lower the 2026 nickel ore production target from 3.79 billion tons to 2.5 billion tons [2][3][4][5][6]. - International Trade News: China suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imported from Russia. The US President Trump may impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1st and implement export controls on "all key software". China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products from January 1st, 2026 [3][4][5]. - Monetary Policy News: New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is +1, and that of stainless steel is +1, indicating a moderately positive outlook for both [6].