Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the performance and trends of various futures products, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, industrial metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on market conditions and fundamentals [5][9][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - The previous trading day, most bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted a 26 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 20.8 billion yuan on the day. Beijing optimized real estate policies, and the central bank's monetary policy meeting suggested maintaining a loose policy. It is expected that bond futures still face some pressure, and caution is advised [5][6][7] Stocks - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. Recently, market sentiment has warmed up, and incremental funds have continued to enter the market. It is expected that the volatility center of the stock index will gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9] Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures both rose. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold purchases and the expected continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are also beneficial to precious metals. It is expected that precious metals will continue to rise, and investors can wait and see for long - entry opportunities [10][11] Industrial Metals - Steel Products: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The demand for rebar is expected to decline in the long - term due to the real estate downturn, and the market will enter the off - season. Although the supply pressure has eased, the inventory is higher than last year. It is expected that prices will continue to oscillate weakly, and investors can consider short - selling at high levels during rebounds [12] - Iron Ore: The previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The iron ore market supply - demand pattern is weak, with a decline in iron water output, an increase in imports and a continuous rise in port inventory. Technically, it may face resistance near the previous high. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [14] - Coking Coal and Coke: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. Coking coal production has decreased, while demand from downstream coke enterprises has increased. Coke procurement prices have been lowered for the third time, and steel mills' demand for coke has weakened. Technically, they may continue to rebound in the short - term, and investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels [15] - Ferroalloys: The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined slightly. Manganese ore supply has changed, and ferroalloy production has been falling. Although the short - term oversupply has slightly weakened, the overall pressure remains. Investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels after the spot loss widens [17][18] - Copper: The previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures declined. The macro - economic situation is complex, and the fundamentals of copper remain in tight balance. Although there is support from pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, there is short - term pressure from weak global industrial demand and the holiday season. Copper prices are expected to remain at a high level, but investors should be cautious about chasing the rise [39][40] - Aluminum: The previous trading day, Shanghai aluminum and alumina futures declined. Alumina is in oversupply, while the supply of electrolytic aluminum is relatively stable. Demand is average, and aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [42] - Zinc: The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc futures declined. Zinc concentrate processing fees are under pressure, and refined zinc production is decreasing. Demand from downstream industries is weak, and LME zinc inventory has increased. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [44] - Lead: The previous trading day, Shanghai lead futures rose. Some primary lead enterprises are under maintenance, and some secondary lead enterprises have resumed production. Consumption has entered the off - season. Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly within a range [45] - Tin: The previous trading day, tin futures declined. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is showing some resilience. Refined tin inventory is decreasing, and tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly [47] - Nickel: The previous trading day, nickel futures declined. Indonesia's nickel policy has changed, and the cost is expected to rise. However, stainless steel is in the off - season, demand is weak, and primary nickel is in an oversupply situation. Investors should pay attention to Indonesia's policies [48][49] Energy - Crude Oil: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. CFTC data shows that US funds reduced their net short positions. There are uncertainties in the crude oil market due to various factors. Currently, Brent crude oil prices are stable near the $60 mark, and investors are advised to watch more and trade less during the holiday season [19][20] - Fuel Oil: The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated slightly. The cost - end crude oil price is stable, which helps to stabilize fuel oil prices. Fuel oil has hit new lows this year, and there is a large rebound space. Investors can wait and see [21][22] Chemicals - Polyolefins: The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou showed a slight rebound, and the LLDPE market in Yuyao was mostly stable. Polyolefin production enterprises are expected to be stable with minor fluctuations. The supply pressure of standard products may ease slightly, but downstream demand is expected to decline. In the short - term, the market is still in a negative feedback stage, and investors can look for long - entry opportunities [23][24][25] - Synthetic Rubber: The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. It is supported by cost and demand in the short - term, and the market is expected to oscillate. Investors need to pay attention to changes in the supply and demand sides [26][27] - Natural Rubber: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The market is expected to experience a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, and prices may oscillate. Supply is affected by domestic and overseas factors, and demand is weak. Inventory is increasing [28][29] - PVC: The previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space may be limited. After the holiday, investors should focus on exports and supply reduction. The inventory has decreased slightly [30] - Urea: The previous trading day, urea futures rose. It is expected that the urea market will fluctuate slightly this week. Supply is expected to remain stable, demand is expected to increase slightly, and industry profits have recovered slightly [31][32] - PX: The previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread has been repaired, and the short - process profit has improved. Supply and demand have improved, and cost - end oil prices may have a short - term rebound. PX is expected to adjust strongly in the short - term, and investors can look for long - entry opportunities at low levels [33] - PTA: The previous trading day, PTA futures rose. Supply has decreased, demand has been supported, and exports have increased. Processing fees have declined, and inventory is at a low level. PTA is expected to have good medium - and long - term supply and demand, and investors can follow the cost - end to participate at low levels [34] - Ethylene Glycol: The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. Supply pressure remains due to new production and restarts, and port inventory is increasing. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and investors can participate in a range - bound manner [35] - Short - Fiber: The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. Supply has declined but remains at a relatively high level, demand support has weakened, and cost - end drive has increased. Short - fiber is expected to oscillate following raw material prices [36] - Bottle Chips: The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. Processing fees have declined, supply has decreased slightly, and exports have increased. It is expected to oscillate following the cost - end [37] - Lithium Carbonate: The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. Supply is at a high level, and demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved. Inventory has decreased, and prices may be supported in the short - term. Investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [38] Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil and Meal: The previous trading day, soybean meal and oil futures declined. Brazilian soybean planting is almost complete, and the domestic soybean supply is relatively loose. The demand for soybean meal is expected to grow moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly. Investors can look for long - entry opportunities for soybean meal at the low - cost support level and for soybean oil through long - call options at the low - level range [50][51] - Palm Oil: Malaysian palm oil was basically flat. The production in December decreased, and the export situation was mixed. China's palm oil imports increased in November, and the inventory is at the middle level in the past seven years. Investors are advised to wait and see [52][53] - Rapeseed Meal and Oil: Canadian rapeseed futures rose. China's rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal imports in November showed different trends. Rapeseed meal and oil inventories are at different levels in the past seven years. Investors are advised to wait and see [54][55] - Cotton: The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated strongly. The 2026 Xinjiang cotton planting policy will reduce the sown area. Although domestic cotton production is high, the inventory accumulation is less than expected. Cotton prices are expected to run strongly [56][58][59] - Sugar: The previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded. China's sugar imports in November decreased year - on - year, and Brazil's sugar production and exports showed different trends. India's sugar production is expected to increase significantly. After the sharp rebound, the upward space may be limited, and investors are advised to wait and see [60][61][62] - Apples: The previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated. The current inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined. Apple prices are expected to run strongly [63][64] - Hogs: The previous trading day, hog futures rose. The northern hog market is expected to strengthen, and the southern market is stable. The supply and demand situation is complex, and investors are advised to wait and see [64][66] - Eggs: The previous trading day, egg futures rose. The egg supply is expected to remain at a high level in December, but the demand is weak. The supply - side improvement is offset by weak demand. Investors are advised to wait and see [67][68] - Corn and Starch: The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures rose. The northern port corn inventory is increasing, and the demand is growing slightly. Corn starch demand has improved, but the supply is abundant, and the inventory is at a high level. It may follow the corn market [69][70][71]
西南期货早间评论-20251225
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-12-25 02:01