国新国证期货早报-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 24, 2025, the A - share market showed an overall upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving six consecutive daily gains. Different futures varieties had diverse price movements and market conditions, influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - policies, and international market trends [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 24, the A - share market's three major indices all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.53% to close at 3940.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.88% to 13486.42 points, and the ChiNext Index climbed 0.77% to 3229.58 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 1880.3 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 19.6 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index was strong, closing at 4634.06, a rise of 13.32 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On December 24, the weighted index of coke showed a narrow - range shock, closing at 1727.2, up 5.6. The mainstream steel mills' purchase prices were generally reduced by 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and the third round of price cuts was implemented. The coke enterprises' production declined, and the total coke inventory decreased. The blast furnace operation and molten iron output continued to decline, with overall weak driving force [2][4]. - Coking coal: On December 24, the weighted index of coking coal fluctuated within a range, closing at 1119.7 yuan, up 7.6. The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal in Tangshan was 1320 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 1100 yuan/ton on the futures market. The central government emphasized "dual - carbon" and energy - power construction, which was beneficial for the long - term transformation of the industry. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal was at a high level, and the coking coal inventory was increasing. The load of steel and coking enterprises decreased, and the price cut of coke was implemented, leading to a narrowing of coke enterprises' profits and rigid - demand procurement [3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by short - covering, the US sugar continued to rise on December 23. Driven by the rise of US sugar and the increase of spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract rose sharply on December 24. Due to a large short - term increase, it had an oscillatory adjustment at night and closed slightly higher. In November 2025, China's refined sugar production was 1.303 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. From January to November 2025, the production was 12.633 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. In November 2025, the dairy product output was 2.431 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%; from January to November, it was 26.85 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [4]. Rubber - Supported by the firm crude oil price and the increase of Southeast Asian spot prices, Shanghai rubber rose significantly on December 24. Due to a large short - term increase, it had an oscillatory adjustment at night and closed slightly higher. At the end of November 2025, the inventory of the national passenger vehicle industry was 3.79 million, an increase of 380,000 compared with the previous month and 590,000 compared with November 2024. Based on the inventory at the end of November 2025 and the estimated sales in the next three months, the current inventory can support 61 days of sales, compared with 48 days in November 2024, indicating relatively high inventory pressure in November 2025 [4][6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on December 24, due to position adjustment before the Christmas holiday, CBOT soybean futures rebounded slightly, but the market was still cautious about the US soybean export sales speed. Brazil's soybean sowing was basically completed, the weather in South America continued to improve, and sporadic harvesting had begun in northern Brazil, with an optimistic production outlook, which restricted the rise of US soybean prices. Domestically, on December 24, the M2605 main contract closed at 2728 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.51%. Recently, the arrival of imported soybeans in China slowed down, but oil mills maintained a high operating rate. Last week, the domestic soybean meal inventory rose to 1.1371 million tons, an increase of 40,200 tons week - on - week and 554,300 tons compared with the same period last year. The domestic soybean meal supply was abundant, and oil mills had little motivation to support prices. It is recommended to focus on extreme weather changes in South America and the arrival volume of soybeans [6]. Live Pigs - On December 24, the LH2603 main contract closed at 11,480 yuan/ton, a 0.57% increase from the previous trading day. Currently, the enthusiasm for live pig slaughter in the breeding end is generally high. As the effective time for pre - holiday slaughter decreases, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises has significantly accelerated. The slaughter intention of individual farmers and secondary fattening groups has also increased, jointly pushing the market's live pig circulation to a high level. The demand side shows signs of marginal improvement. As the peak of curing and stocking in Southwest China approaches, the sales of fresh pork have accelerated significantly, and the slaughtering enterprises' operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The phased strengthening of consumption demand has a certain boosting effect on live pig prices and alleviates the downward pressure from the supply side to some extent. It is recommended to focus on the changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the progress of cured meat consumption [6]. Palm Oil - On December 24, palm oil continued to rebound but was blocked when rising. The P2605 contract closed with a doji star with an upper shadow, with the highest price of 8548, the lowest price of 8482, and the closing price of 8488, a 0.02% increase from the previous day. According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44%, with a 11.66% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, a 2.12% decrease in Sabah, a 0.75% decrease in Sarawak, and a 1.73% decrease in Borneo [6]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper rose strongly, closing at 96,100 yuan/ton, with a settlement price of 95,260 yuan. The highest price during the day reached 96,750 yuan/ton, with large intraday fluctuations and active market trading. The final trading volume was 307,141 lots, and the open interest was 258,277 lots. The copper futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2679 tons to 52,222 tons, and the inventories on LME and COMEX also increased, showing an accumulation trend in global inventory. SMM predicts that China's electrolytic copper production in December will increase by 5.96% month - on - month. The copper concentrate processing fee is at a historical low, and some smelters are in a state of production reduction. Globally, copper mines in many places have frequent accidents, with a 4.7% year - on - year decline in production in major producing areas such as Chile and Indonesia. The copper concentrate processing fee has dropped to a historical low of - 40 US dollars/ton, and smelters at home and abroad have reduced production, which supports the upward movement of copper prices. The demand from traditional home appliances and construction is weak, but the demand from emerging fields such as new - energy vehicles and AI computing centers is remarkable, becoming the core growth engine of copper demand. At the same time, China's power grid investment has stable growth, supporting copper consumption. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut continues to heat up, the US dollar index is under pressure to decline, reducing the holding cost of non - ferrous metals. The US has included copper in the list of critical minerals, and the expectation of additional import tariffs has led to an imbalance in the global copper inventory distribution, further boosting the copper price [6][7]. Cotton - On the night of December 24, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,175 yuan/ton. The rise in crude oil price pushed up the cost of polyester, and the US dollar index weakened. Cotton textile enterprises replenished inventory as needed. The cotton inventory increased by 282 lots compared with the previous trading day [7]. Iron Ore - On December 24, the 2605 main contract of iron ore fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.26% and a closing price of 779.5 yuan. The global iron ore shipment decreased compared with the previous period, the arrival volume also decreased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the terminal demand in the off - season was still at a low level, and the molten iron output continued to decline. The short - term iron ore price was in an oscillatory trend [7]. Asphalt - On December 24, the 2602 main contract of asphalt fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.27% and a closing price of 2996 yuan. The planned production volume of asphalt from local refineries in January decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, the inventory decreased slightly, the demand in the off - season continued to shrink, and the refineries' sales were blocked. The short - term asphalt price showed an oscillatory operation [7]. Logs - The 2603 main contract of logs opened at 770 on December 24, with the lowest price of 769.5, the highest price of 777.5, and closed at 776, with a reduction of 112 lots in open interest. The spot - market support should be noted. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 720 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship. In the future, attention should be paid to the spot - market price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on prices [7][8]. Steel - On December 24, rb2605 closed at 3136 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3285 yuan/ton. The weak demand pattern in the steel market in the off - season is difficult to change, the steel mills' production continues to run at a low level, the supply and demand are generally in a weak - balance pattern, the inventory pressure is not large, and the steel mills' ex - factory prices are mainly stable. At the same time, the prices of raw fuels fluctuate within a narrow range, the coking coal market shows signs of bottoming out and stabilizing, and the iron ore price has a slight decline from a high level. The cost still supports the steel price. In the short term, the steel price may continue to oscillate within a narrow range [8]. Alumina - On December 24, ao2601 closed at 2554 yuan/ton. In the short term, enterprises have little willingness to reduce production. With the inflow of imported goods and the supplement of delivery goods, the short - term supply will remain sufficient, and the oversupply situation will continue, putting pressure on the alumina price. For further production - reduction situations, the market dynamics in 2026 after the execution of long - term contracts need to be noted. On the demand side, the northwest electrolytic aluminum plants had concentrated restocking before, resulting in increased unloading pressure. With high inventory, their willingness to purchase alumina on the spot market has decreased significantly; the supply in the southern region is stable, and only individual aluminum plants purchase at low prices. In the spot market, holders mainly focus on selling, and downstream enterprises maintain the rhythm of purchasing as needed. Most buyers' willingness to purchase at low prices has increased, driving the whole - day trading [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On December 24, al2602 closed at 22,330 yuan/ton. In the macro - aspect, non - ferrous metals are still strongly driven by precious metals. Silver has continuously reached new highs, and copper and aluminum continue to be driven upward. The market is optimistic about the Fed's interest rate cut next year, and the expectation of loose liquidity strongly supports precious metals and non - ferrous metals. In terms of fundamentals, the supply side operates stably. The downstream aluminum - water consumption capacity in some areas has weakened, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the production areas has accumulated significantly. The shipment of aluminum ingots has partially recovered, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. The demand side shows a weakening trend. As the end of the year approaches, both the purchasing and sales sides have cooled down, and there is a certain degree of production reduction and shutdown in Central China. Large - scale downstream processing factories maintain a certain demand. The demand in the plate, strip, foil, and industrial materials fields is relatively stable, while the consumption in the rod and bar fields shows some pressure [9].