英大证券晨会纪要-20251225

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a narrow fluctuation pattern on Wednesday, with all three major indices gradually turning positive after initial dips [4] - By the end of the trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index recorded six consecutive days of gains, with most stocks rising [5] - The significant alleviation of global liquidity concerns provided external support for the A-share rebound, while expectations of a stable and strengthening RMB reduced systemic outflow pressure from foreign capital [9] Sector Performance - The non-bank financial sector led the market rally, with strong performances from military industry stocks, particularly in aerospace and shipbuilding [4][6] - The commercial aerospace sector was notably active, benefiting from recent policy clarifications and a favorable market outlook [7] - The semiconductor sector continued its upward trend, supported by national policy backing and increasing global demand for AI and high-performance computing [8] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a cautious approach, focusing on sectors with strong earnings support, such as technology growth (semiconductors, AI themes, robotics) and cyclical industries (solar, batteries, chemicals, coal, non-ferrous metals) [2][9] - Investors are advised to avoid high-valuation stocks lacking earnings support and to consider accumulating positions in fundamentally sound companies during market dips [2][9] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that incremental policy measures are likely to be introduced around the Chinese New Year, which may limit short-term market upside [2][9] - While there are signs of marginal improvement in macroeconomic data, a clear recovery point has yet to be established, necessitating further observation of corporate earnings recovery [9]