华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251225

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished steel products is expected to move downward with a weak trend, and the price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short - term with an oscillatory pattern, paying attention to the upper pressure [1][4] - The finished steel market is expected to be in an oscillatory and consolidating state, and the aluminum market is expected to have short - term high - level oscillations, focusing on macro - guidance [3][4] Group 3: Summary of Different Product Sections Finished Steel - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - The finished steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a pessimistic market sentiment, and the price center has been continuously moving down. The winter storage this year is sluggish and provides little support for prices [3] Aluminum - Macroscopically, both domestic and international sentiment is positive, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased, which is beneficial to aluminum prices and the non - ferrous metal sector [2] - The alumina market has a loose supply - demand pattern, with weak spot prices and cautious market sentiment. After the resumption of production in some enterprises in Guizhou and Guangxi, the production capacity has recovered, but the recovery in Henan is limited due to environmental protection. The weekly output increased by only 0.5 million tons, and the inventory increased by 0.5 million tons [3] - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.5%. The operating rates of different sub - industries vary: the primary aluminum alloy industry remained stable at 60%; the aluminum plate and strip industry remained at 65.0% but was under pressure; the aluminum cable industry decreased slightly by 0.4% to 62%; the aluminum profile industry decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 51.6% [3] - On December 22, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 600,000 tons, a 4,000 - ton increase from the previous Monday. In late December, the supply pressure of aluminum ingots increased, and the demand was affected by environmental protection control and high prices, with the inventory expected to increase slightly [3]