华宝期货晨报煤焦-20251225

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The market sentiment has slightly improved recently, and prices have seen a phased rebound, but the fundamentals are still weak and lack support for price rebounds [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated, with a sharp price movement in the night session. The price of high - quality coking coal in Shanxi remained stable. Steel mills completed the third round of price cuts for coke, and downstream may replenish raw materials after the price drop [3]. Supply - This week, coal mines reduced production at the end of the month. Coke enterprises started to replenish stocks moderately, but overall market transactions were still weak. Large - mine long - term contracts had low cost - effectiveness, and downstream procurement was inactive. Mine - end inventories continued to accumulate. This week, the raw coal output of coking coal mines decreased by 54,000 tons week - on - week, and the daily output of clean coal decreased by 18,000 tons week - on - week. Raw coal and clean coal inventories increased by 42,000 tons and 101,000 tons respectively [3]. Demand - The demand is in a downward trend. Last week, the blast furnace hot metal output dropped to 2.2655 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 28,600 tons, which continuously suppressed the rigid demand for raw materials [3]. Import - According to customs data, China's coking coal imports have generally remained at a relatively high level in recent months. In November, China imported 1.07315 million tons of coking coal, a month - on - month increase of 1.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.72%. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports were 105 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.687 million tons, a decline of 5.99%. In November, Mongolia's coking coal imports were 624,410 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.38% and a year - on - year increase of 19.65%. High - frequency data shows that Mongolia's coal customs clearance in December continued to remain at a high level, and the port supervision area mainly increased inventories [3].