碳酸锂：高位震荡，规避追涨风险，成材，重心下移偏弱运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 成材: The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. The view is that it will operate in a volatile and consolidating manner [3][4]. - 碳酸锂: The main contract of lithium carbonate is in a high - level shock. It is necessary to be cautious and avoid the risk of chasing up. Focus on the marginal changes in supply and demand [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 成材 - Production Impact: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown schedules, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3]. - New House Transaction: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [3][4]. - Market Situation: The finished products market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a pessimistic market sentiment. The price has reached a new low, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [4]. - View and Attention Points: The view is that it will operate in a volatile and consolidating manner. Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4]. 碳酸锂 - Futures Market: Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 124,720 yuan/ton, with trading volume increasing to 949,000 lots and positions decreasing to 647,400 lots. The long - short ratio continued to rise, and the net short position of the main contract continued. The registered warehouse receipts increased. The basis of the main contract was - 23,220 yuan/ton (a near - one - year low), and the futures price deviated significantly from the fundamentals due to capital speculation [3]. - Spot Market: The average price of electric carbon was 101,500 yuan/ton and continued to rise. Upstream lithium salt factories mainly focused on long - term contracts with few spot orders; downstream material factories were on the sidelines at high prices, mainly for rigid demand procurement and long - term contract supply; traders had light transactions [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, raw material prices rose, strengthening cost support. The weekly operating rate and weekly output of lithium carbonate both increased by 0.21% week - on - week, with a steady supply release but a slowdown in growth. On the demand side, short - term demand decreased slightly while long - term resilience remained unchanged. The production of ternary and iron - lithium decreased week - on - week, and inventory continued to decline. The production of power cells decreased slightly week - on - week but increased by 30.34% year - on - year. New energy vehicle sales fluctuated significantly in the short term, with a stable month - on - month penetration rate and a high year - on - year increase [4]. - Inventory: Last week, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased by 0.9% week - on - week, continuing to decline but at a slower pace. The total inventory days decreased by 1.1% week - on - week. There was a phased inventory build - up in other links, and inventory shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end. Social inventory showed a phased build - up, with a year - on - year decrease of 54.71%. The overall industry inventory remained tight [4]. - Policy and Market Sentiment: Regulatory tightening is clear. Measures such as trading limits on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the promotion of the exit of backward production capacity in 2025 will intensify market fluctuations in the short term. The Fed's interest rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference form a coordinated positive, providing support for the long - term supply - demand pattern. The market sentiment forms a "expectation - price - sentiment" cycle, and risks such as insufficient downstream acceptance and over - bought pullbacks need to be vigilant [5]. - View and Attention Points: The view is high - level shock. It is necessary to be cautious and avoid chasing up. Focus on marginal changes in supply and demand. Later, attention should be paid to the implementation of macro - policies, the progress of capacity release, the resilience of downstream demand, the slope of sample inventory decline, and capital and sentiment [5].