新能源及有色金属日报：消费逐步向淡季转换-20251225

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market. However, social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the levels of the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and the smelting enthusiasm remains high. The supply is expected to increase. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is still expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are not met, zinc prices will face significant pressure. Zinc prices are expected to be relatively weak even when other non - ferrous metals are strong, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be watched [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: The LME zinc spot premium is -$29.14 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,260 yuan per ton, up 170 yuan from the previous trading day, with a premium of 90 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,220 yuan per ton, up 200 yuan, with a premium of - 5 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,170 yuan per ton, up 180 yuan, with a premium of 0 yuan per ton [2] - Futures: On December 24, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,290 yuan per ton and closed at 23,230 yuan per ton, down 215 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 171,518 lots, and the open interest was 95,197 lots. The highest price was 23,320 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 23,045 yuan per ton [3] - Inventory: As of December 24, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 124,500 tons, up 2,300 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 106,875 tons, up 7,900 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - Zinc prices have fallen, and there is restocking in the spot market. Social inventories are rising, and spot liquidity has improved. Procurement is still cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores is rising, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm remains high. The supply is expected to increase. The pressure on the supply side is increasing, and domestic inventory accumulation is expected even during the peak consumption season. If the peak - season expectations are not met, zinc prices will face pressure. Zinc prices may be relatively weak, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [6]