资金面宽松，国债期货大多收涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations. Affected by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, the LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations continued while global trade uncertainties increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. In the short term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators show that China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.70%, while China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of 0.10% and a year - on - year change of - 2.20% [9]. - Economic indicators (monthly updated): Social financing scale is 440.07 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.35 trillion yuan (+0.54%); M2 year - on - year is 8.00%, down 0.20% (-2.44%); Manufacturing PMI is 49.20%, up 0.20% (+0.41%) [10]. - Economic indicators (daily updated): The US dollar index is 97.96, up 0.06 (+0.06%); The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.0101, down 0.010 (-0.14%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.39, down 0.01 (-1.00%); DR007 is 1.38, down 0.03 (-2.16%); R007 is 1.51, up 0.00 (-0.31%); The inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) 3M is 1.60, up 0.00 (+0.16%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, up 0.00 (+0.16%) [10]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the precipitation fund trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the net position ratio (top 20) of each treasury bond futures variety, the long - short position ratio (top 20) of each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, and the treasury bond issuance situation [12][15][22]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - The main term repurchase rates 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.267%, 1.385%, 1.599%, and 1.579% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. - On December 24, 2025, the central bank conducted a 26 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tendering [2]. IV. Spread Overview There are figures showing the inter - term spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety and the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures such as (4TS - T), (2TS - TF), (2TF - T), (3T - TL), (2TS - 3TF + T) [30][37][38]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures There are figures including the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [40][43][48]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures There are figures including the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [52][56]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures There are figures including the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [59][62][64]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures There are figures including the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [67][71][73]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: As the repurchase rate declines, the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].