Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral [11] - The rating for BR is neutral [11] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, the domestic supply is increasing slowly, with continuous inventory accumulation at ports and in society. Although the cost - end support is strong, the supply is likely to recover, and the downstream demand is in the off - season, making it difficult for the factory's operating rate to rise [11] - For cis - butadiene rubber, the supply will remain abundant, the downstream tire demand is weak, and the operating rate of tire factories may decline. However, the upstream raw material cost support may continue [11] Market News and Data Futures - On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,650 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,615 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 11,395 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,250 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,780 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan/ton; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,865 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,785 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Information Import Volume - In November 2025, China's natural rubber (including technically specified rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) import volume was 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [2] Global Production and Consumption - According to the ANRPC's November 2025 report, the global natural rubber production in November was expected to drop 2.6% to 147,400 tons, a 1.5% drop from the previous month; the consumption was expected to drop 1.4% to 124,800 tons, a 0.9% drop from the previous month. In the first 11 months, the global cumulative natural rubber production was expected to increase 2% to 1.3375 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to drop 1.7% to 1.3932 million tons [2] Tire Market - The supply of semi - steel all - season tires was relatively sufficient, and the market was mainly digesting previous inventories with a slower shipment pace. There was a shortage of some specifications, but weak demand suppressed the market's purchasing sentiment. The supply of semi - steel snow tires in the distribution channels was sufficient, and it was in the terminal inventory - reduction stage, waiting for more snowfall to release replacement demand. Overall, the market transactions were dull, and prices were weak [2] Heavy - Truck Sales - In November 2025, heavy - truck sales reached 113,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 65%, achieving an "8 - consecutive - month year - on - year increase" and setting the highest monthly sales volume in the heavy - truck market this year [3] Automobile Production and Sales - In November, China's automobile production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. The monthly production exceeded 3.5 million units for the first time, setting a new record [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On December 24, 2025, the RU basis was - 400 yuan/ton (- 60), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 870 yuan/ton (+ 100), the NR basis was 528.00 yuan/ton (- 78.00); the price of whole latex was 15,250 yuan/ton (+ 300), the price of mixed rubber was 14,780 yuan/ton (+ 260), the price of 3L spot was 15,500 yuan/ton (+ 200). The STR20 was quoted at 1,865 US dollars/ton (+ 20), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 250 yuan/ton (+ 100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,480 yuan/ton (+ 160) [5] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheets was 58.22 Thai baht/kg (- 0.03), the price of Thai latex was 55.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.80 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.40 Thai baht/kg (- 0.50) [6] Operating Rate - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.61% (- 0.94%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.01% (- 0.13%) [7] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 515,227 tons (+ 16,339), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,182,245 tons (+ 29,327), the RU futures inventory was 87,160 tons (+ 30,170), and the NR futures inventory was 58,968 tons (- 605) [7] Cis - Butadiene Rubber Spot and Spreads - On December 24, 2025, the BR basis was - 445 yuan/ton (- 170), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,100 yuan/ton (+ 200), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,950 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,630 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,303 yuan/ton (+ 14) [8] Operating Rate - The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 76.26% (+ 5.58%) [9] Inventory - The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber among traders was 5,690 tons (- 720), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber among enterprises was 28,850 tons (+ 1,250) [10] Strategy Natural Rubber (RU and NR) - With the domestic Hainan production area approaching the end of the tapping season, the supply increase is slow. Although the far - month price of blended rubber has strengthened, the near - month price is average, and the basis is weakly stable. The continuous inventory accumulation at ports and in society, combined with the off - season of downstream demand, makes it difficult for the factory's operating rate to rise. The cost - end support is strong, but the supply is likely to recover [11] Cis - Butadiene Rubber (BR) - With less upstream maintenance, the supply of cis - butadiene rubber will remain abundant. Downstream tire demand is weak, and the operating rate of tire factories may decline. The self - supply - and - demand situation of cis - butadiene rubber remains weak, but the upstream raw material cost support may continue [11]
天然橡胶社会库存继续增加
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-12-25 02:49