Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The vegetable oil sector is expected to rebound from the bottom and mainly oscillate at a low level, waiting for long - term short - selling opportunities after the rebound. The two - meal sector is expected to rebound from a low level, and new selling points should be sought after the rebound ends [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Vegetable Oil Sector Market Review - On December 24, the strength and weakness of the vegetable oil sector were further differentiated. Rapeseed oil stopped falling and rebounded significantly, while soybean oil and palm oil were weak. The closing prices and daily changes of the main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are as follows: - Soybean oil: The main contract Y2605 closed at 7,764 yuan/ton, down 0.10% day - on - day, with an increase of 1,562 lots in positions; the secondary contract Y2609 closed at 7,700 yuan/ton, down 0.23% day - on - day, with an increase of 119 lots in positions. - Palm oil: The main contract P2605 closed at 8,488 yuan/ton, up 0.02% day - on - day, with a decrease of 37,874 lots in positions; the secondary contract P2609 closed at 8,364 yuan/ton, down 0.10% day - on - day, with an increase of 360 lots in positions. - Rapeseed oil: The main contract OI2605 closed at 8,980 yuan/ton, up 1.50% day - on - day, with an increase of 7,936 lots in positions; the secondary contract OI2609 closed at 8,938 yuan/ton, up 1.02% day - on - day, with a decrease of 35 lots in positions [1] Important Information - International oil prices closed slightly lower on December 24, and are expected to record the largest annual decline since 2020. The most actively traded February crude oil futures contract on NYMEX fell 0.03 dollars or 0.05% to settle at 58.35 dollars per barrel. - The market speculates that the Trump administration will make a decision on the 45Z tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel next week. Since January 1, 2026, the tax credit for US biodiesel producers will increase to 64 cents per gallon, and that for renewable diesel producers will increase to 53 cents per gallon. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil. - From December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.15% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area down 6.26% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.17%. - From December 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 851,057 tons, a 2.4% increase compared to the same period in November. Exports to China were 102,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons compared to the same period last month. - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared to 2025. The PSO total allocation decreased slightly. Indonesia launched a B50 road test in December, and the energy minister said the mandatory B50 addition plan will start in the second half of 2026. - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.2936 million tons, a weekly decrease of 17,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.30%. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.3178 million tons, a weekly decrease of 25,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.89%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.76%; edible palm oil inventory was 617,800 tons, a weekly increase of 33,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.75%, and a year - on - year increase of 26.08%; rapeseed oil inventory was 358,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 25,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.75%, and a year - on - year decrease of 28.29%. - As of December 24, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,320 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan/ton; the basis was 556 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 38 yuan/ton; the average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,470 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton, the basis was - 18 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 98 yuan/ton, and the palm oil import profit was - 437.03 yuan/ton. The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 130 yuan/ton, the basis was 570 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3 yuan/ton. - As of December 24, the oil - meal ratio of the main soybean oil and soybean meal contracts was 2.85 [1][2] Market Logic - External market: Before the Christmas holiday in the US market, capital adjustment drove up the price of US soybean oil. Although international crude oil prices rose, the overall inventory pressure in Southeast Asia and the lack of enthusiasm for purchases by major consumer countries made the rebound of Malaysian palm oil show signs of weakness. - Domestic market: For domestic soybean oil, factory inventory decreased by 25,000 tons, indicating a short - term supply shortage, but the high crushing volume and operating rate of oil mills coexisted with long and short factors, and traders were cautious in stocking up. For palm oil, the strong performance of US soybean oil before the holiday may boost the domestic market, and attention should be paid to whether it can effectively break through the pressure of the 20 - day moving average. For rapeseed oil, due to market news that many traders planned to take delivery of the 2601 rapeseed oil warehouse receipts and actively inquired about the price of crude rapeseed oil, and the continuous reduction of rapeseed oil inventory in East China, the 2601 Zhengzhou rapeseed oil contract led the rise in the domestic vegetable oil market, and the 2605 contract followed suit. As the Christmas holiday approached, capital mainly left the market, and the market focused on whether the 05 contract could effectively break through the pressure level of 9,000 yuan. In the spot market, the transaction of genetically modified and non - genetically modified rapeseed oil in East China was good, and the basis quotation was also supported, showing a slight increase of 30 - 50 yuan/ton [2] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: For new vegetable oil orders, conduct intraday trading and maintain a short - term bearish view in the long - term. The pressure and support levels for each contract are as follows: - Y2605: Pressure level 8,400, support level 7,400. - Y2609: Pressure level 8,040, support level 7,370. - P2605: Pressure level 8,626, support level 7,940. - P2609: Pressure level 8,578, support level 7,880. - OI2605: Pressure level 9,200, support level 8,250. - OI2609: Pressure level 9,300, support level 8,400. - Arbitrage: None [2] Two - Meal Sector Market Review - On December 24, the market sentiment was cautious, and the two - meal prices mainly oscillated at a low level. The closing prices and daily changes of the main and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are as follows: - Soybean meal: The main contract M2605 closed at 2,728 yuan/ton, down 0.62% day - on - day, with an increase of 11,121 lots in positions; the secondary contract M2609 closed at 2,850 yuan/ton, down 0.45% day - on - day, with an increase of 4,938 lots in positions. - Rapeseed meal: The main contract RM2605 closed at 2,344 yuan/ton, down 0.21% day - on - day, with an increase of 10,459 lots in positions; the secondary contract RM2609 closed at 2,400 yuan/ton, down 0.12% day - on - day, with an increase of 1,092 lots in positions [2] Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture estimates that in the 2026/2027 season, US farmers will reduce the corn planting area and increase the soybean planting area to 85 million acres. Previously, S&P Global predicted that the US soybean planting area in 2026 would increase by 4% from 81.1 million acres in 2025 to 84.5 million acres. - On Friday, private exporters reported selling 134,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. - As of December 11, the sowing of the 2025/2026 season's soybeans in Brazil was 97% complete, up from 94% a week ago. - StoneX predicts that the 2025/2026 season's soybean production in Brazil may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous estimate of 175 million tons. - As of December 13, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 94.1%, up from 90.3% last week, 96.8% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 90.6%. - Brazil's soybean exports in December are expected to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's estimate of 3.33 million tons. - US farmers welcomed the latest 12 - billion - dollar agricultural aid plan announced by President Trump but generally believed that this amount was far from enough to make up for the industry's losses of 34 - 44 billion dollars this year. - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 764,600 tons, a decrease of 40,900 tons compared to last week, 591,900 tons in the same period last year, and the five - week average was 785,900 tons. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 109,500 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.38%; the contract volume was 467,000 tons, a decrease of 184,900 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 28.36%. The total inventory of imported rapeseed was 6,000 tons, the same as last week, 81,900 tons in the same period last year, and the five - week average was 5,000 tons. The inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal was 0 tons, the same as last week, and the contract volume was also 0 tons, the same as last week. - On December 19, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 550,143.732 tons of imported soybeans from the State Reserve, and the actual transaction volume was 179,701.674 tons, with a transaction rate of 32.66% and an average transaction price of 3,751 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 80 yuan/ton. - As of December 24, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,120 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 22,000 tons; the basis price of soybean meal was 3,080 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 141,000 tons; the basis of the main soybean meal contract was 372 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 17 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal was 2,426 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0 tons; the basis price of rapeseed meal was 2,469 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0 tons; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 236 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton. - The US soybean January futures crushing profit was - 481 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing profit was - 79 yuan/ton; the Brazilian soybean February futures crushing profit was - 99 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing profit was 246 yuan/ton. - The arrival cost of US Gulf soybeans for January shipment at Zhangjiagang with normal tariffs was 3,908 yuan/ton, and the cost of Brazilian soybeans for February shipment at Zhangjiagang was 3,577 yuan/ton. The CNF quote of US Gulf soybeans for January shipment was 481 dollars/ton, and the CNF quote of Brazilian soybeans for February shipment was 440 dollars/ton. The CNF quote of Canadian rapeseed for January shipment was 489 dollars/ton, and the arrival cost of rapeseed for January shipment at Guangzhou Port was 4,175 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 60 yuan/ton [2][3] Market Logic - External market: Capital adjustment before Christmas led to a rebound in US soybean prices. In the spot market, most oil mill quotes remained stable, with some local areas reducing prices by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The overall spot trading was stable, lacking obvious driving factors. Under the high - inventory pressure, traders made rolling replenishments, and feed mills maintained safety inventories and made rigid purchases. They were rational about Spring Festival stocking. Currently, the spot supply of high - protein rapeseed meal in North and South China is relatively tight, so the basis quotation is expected to remain stable with a slight increase of 10 - 20 yuan/ton. In the short term, Zhengzhou rapeseed meal is expected to have strong support at the bottom and mainly adjust through range - bound oscillations [3] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to rebound from a low level, and new selling points should be sought after the rebound ends. The pressure and support levels for each contract are as follows: - M2605: Pressure level 2,858, support level 2,660. - M2607: Pressure level 2,840, support level 2,559. - M2609: Pressure level 2,920, support level 2,717. - RM2605: Pressure level 2,444, support level 2,220. - RM2607: Pressure level 2,429, support level 2,200. - RM2609: Pressure level 2,448, support level 2,274. - Arbitrage: None [4]
格林大华期货早盘提示：三油，两粕-20251225
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-12-25 03:00