美国初请失业救济人数下滑，夜盘贵金属略有调整

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at highs [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - The market risk sentiment has increased, leading to a potential rise in demand for gold investment. Gold prices are expected to be in a volatile pattern, with the Au2602 contract oscillating between 980 yuan/gram and 1080 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also expected to remain volatile but at a historically high level, with a significant narrowing of the gold-silver ratio. There is a risk of a pullback due to profit-taking, and the Ag2602 contract is expected to oscillate between 16800 yuan/kg and 17800 yuan/kg [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical situation: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced 20 details of the Russia-Ukraine "peace plan" draft, but the key territorial issue remains unresolved [1] - Economic data: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week fell to 214,000, and the market still expects two interest rate cuts by the end of 2026 [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On December 24, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1015.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1014.68 yuan/gram, a change of 0.04% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1010.30 yuan/gram, down 0.43% from the afternoon close [2] - On December 24, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 16,510.00 yuan/kg and closed at 17,609.00 yuan/kg, a change of 7.10% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,367,254 lots, and the open interest was 348,865 lots. The night session closed at 17,211 yuan/kg, down 2.26% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 24, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.136%, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.63%, also unchanged [3] Changes in SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volumes - On the Au2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 6,755 lots, and the short positions decreased by 3,264 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 491,223 lots, a change of 29.19% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions increased by 6,459 lots, and the short positions increased by 12,636 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 3,301,271 lots, a change of 38.32% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,064.56 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF position was 16,447 tons, a decrease of 56 tons [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On December 24, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -4.74 yuan/gram, and for silver was -1,611.92 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 57.62, a change of -6.59% from the previous trading day, and the overseas ratio was 64.27, a change of 0.96% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On December 24, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 55,632 kg, a change of -10.36% from the previous trading day, and the trading volume of silver was 1,010,776 kg, a change of 23.70%. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 26,760 kg [7]