Group 1: Investment Ratings - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The sentiment is still supported under the loose monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. The copper ore supply remains in a tight pattern, and there is a risk of structural shortage in refined copper supply due to the expected US copper tariff. However, the benchmark of the long - term copper concentrate processing fee is slightly higher than expected, and the weak consumption at the end of the year increases the upward resistance of copper prices in the short term. It is recommended to view copper prices as a high - level oscillation. The operating range of the main Shanghai copper contract today is expected to be 94,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton [2][3]. - The overall aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level, and there are supply disturbances overseas, so aluminum prices are strongly supported. But the weak downstream consumption exerts pressure, and it is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate in the short term. The operating range of the main Shanghai aluminum contract today is expected to be 22,000 - 22,350 yuan/ton [5][6]. - The apparent inventory of lead ore rises, and the processing fee of lead concentrate remains flat. The operating rate of primary lead smelters increases. The inventory of waste batteries decreases marginally, and the operating rate of secondary lead decreases marginally. The supply of lead ingots in China tightens marginally, and the apparent inventory of lead ingots remains at a relatively low level. The current lead price is at the lower edge of the oscillation range, and it is expected to run strongly in a wide range in the short term [8][9]. - The apparent inventory of zinc concentrate rises, and the TC of zinc concentrate stops falling and stabilizes. With the increase of the Shanghai - London ratio, it is expected that the shortage of zinc ore in China will be marginally alleviated. The LME zinc ingot inventory accumulates, and the LME zinc monthly spread returns to the Contango structure. The social inventory of zinc ingots in China continues to decline, and the spot basis rises, but the monthly spread remains low. Be vigilant about the price impact on other non - ferrous metals after the departure of precious metal funds [10][11]. - Although the current tin market demand is weak and the supply is expected to improve, the bargaining power is limited under the low downstream inventory. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate with the change of market risk preference. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of the overseas LME tin is 39,000 - 43,000 US dollars/ton [12][13]. - The nickel surplus pressure is still large, but due to the proposed tax on cobalt elements by the Indonesian government, the bearish sentiment in the market has exhausted, and the short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of Shanghai nickel prices is expected to be 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME nickel 3M contract is 13,000 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [15][16]. - The potential supply pressure in the short - term of lithium carbonate is eliminated, and the bullish sentiment in the market is strong. The long - position trend of the futures market has not ended. The trading of lithium carbonate is dominated by capital games. It is recommended to wait and see or buy options with a light position. Pay attention to the changes in fundamentals and seat positions. The reference operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 120,600 - 128,000 yuan/ton [19][20]. - After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea gradually recovers, and the AXIS mine resumes production. The ore price is expected to oscillate downward. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. But the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the subsequent production reduction expectation increases. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2400 - 2700 yuan/ton [22][23]. - The plan of the Indonesian government to reduce the nickel ore production target in 2026 has pushed up the prices of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel. But the actual spot market transaction is still relatively light, and there is a lack of driving factors for a continuous strong rebound in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay close attention to the implementation of policies [25][26]. - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively firm, and there are continuous supply disturbances. The price has strong support at the bottom, but the demand is relatively volatile and the delivery pressure forms an upper - limit suppression. The price of cast aluminum alloy may maintain a range - bound fluctuation in the short term [28][29]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Copper - Market Information: The offshore RMB continued to strengthen. The rise of precious metals and concerns about supply reduction drove up copper prices. LME copper closed up 0.65% at 12,133 US dollars/ton, and the main Shanghai copper contract closed at 95,020 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 1,550 to 157,025 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants declined. In China, the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.3 to 52,000 tons, and the spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong expanded. The import loss of Shanghai copper spot was 1,700 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened [2]. Aluminum - Market Information: Affected by the warm atmosphere of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, aluminum prices rose. LME aluminum closed up 0.53% at 2,956 US dollars/ton, and the main Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 22,145 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted Shanghai aluminum contract increased by 0.9 to 662,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts remained stable at 76,000 tons. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly, the aluminum rod inventory decreased slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum rods was lowered. The spot discount of electrolytic aluminum in East China was 170 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.1 to 521,000 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants declined [5]. Lead - Market Information: On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 1.36% at 17,221 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 91,400 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, LME lead 3S rose 20 to 1,997.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, and the total position was 178,000 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,025 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,975 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The inventory of lead ingot futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 12,400 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 90 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts was 15 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 253,100 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 99,800 tons. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly by 400 tons to 19,100 tons [8]. Zinc - Market Information: On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.62% at 23,243 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 201,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, LME zinc 3S rose 39 to 3,125.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, and the total position was 227,700 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 23,260 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 90 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was at par, and the Guangdong basis was - 5 yuan/ton. The inventory of zinc ingot futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 42,400 tons, and the domestic Shanghai - area basis was 90 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 99,000 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 9,800 tons. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory increased by 700 tons to 119,300 tons [10]. Tin - Market Information: On December 24, 2025, the closing price of the main Shanghai tin contract was 341,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating rates of tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi showed a high - level stability but lacked upward momentum. The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan was 86.11%, basically the same as last week, and remained stable throughout the fourth quarter. The tin ore processing fee in this area was still at a historical low, restricting the production enthusiasm of smelting enterprises. In Jiangxi, smelting enterprises continued to face a significant shortage of recycled raw materials. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises remained stable. The production of tin solder of sample enterprises in November increased by 0.95% month - on - month, and the operating rate rose slightly by 0.69% compared with October, mainly supported by orders from emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers. But the high tin price significantly suppressed the downstream purchasing willingness, and the spot trading atmosphere was dull this week [12]. Nickel - Market Information: On Wednesday, nickel prices first rose and then fell. The main Shanghai nickel contract closed at 128,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.79% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable. The price of nickel ore remained stable, and the price of nickel iron rose slightly [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The evening quotation of the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 115,771 yuan, an increase of 3.55% from the previous working day. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 4,100 yuan (+3.66%), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.95%. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 124,720 yuan, an increase of 3.62% from the previous day's closing price, and the average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 2000 yuan [19]. Alumina - Market Information: On December 24, 2025, as of 3 pm, the alumina index rose 1.36% to 2618 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position decreased by 32,800 lots to 617,900 lots. The spot price in Shandong decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 2,635 yuan/ton, with a premium of 81 yuan/ton over the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained unchanged at 309 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was reported at - 68 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts on Wednesday were 161,700 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the previous day. The CIF price of Guinea decreased by 1 US dollar/ton to 66 US dollars/ton, and the CIF price of Australia remained unchanged at 67 US dollars/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: At 15:00 on Wednesday, the main stainless - steel contract closed at 13,075 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.32% (+170). The unilateral position increased by 12,611 lots to 199,500 lots. In the spot market, the prices of cold - rolled coils in Foshan and Wuxi increased. The price of raw materials such as high - nickel iron and 304 scrap steel increased, and the high - carbon ferrochrome price remained unchanged. The futures inventory decreased by 12,106 tons to 48,495 tons, and the social inventory decreased to 1.0421 million tons, a decrease of 2.01% month - on - month [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of cast aluminum alloy oscillated strongly. The main AD2602 contract closed up 1.01% at 21,480 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted contract increased to 28,300 lots, and the trading volume was 12,200 lots. The warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 70,200 tons. The spread between the AL2602 and AD2602 contracts narrowed. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 increased, and the price of imported ADC12 increased by 200 yuan/ton. The domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy inventory decreased by 100 tons to 47,300 tons [28].
有色金属日报-20251225
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-12-25 02:54