化工日报：EG延续累库，供应回升下仍承压-20251225

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral investment is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - After a significant drop on Tuesday and a sharp rise on Wednesday, there was no obvious change in the EG fundamentals. The increase was mainly due to defensive short - covering in response to unplanned maintenance at low market prices, along with positive sentiment in the commodity and chemical sectors [1] - The production margins of ethylene - based and coal - based syngas - based EG both decreased [1] - The inventory data from different sources showed different trends. The overall arrival volume is moderately high, and the main port is expected to see a slight inventory build - up [2] - In terms of the overall fundamental supply - demand logic, the supply pressure is high in the next 1 - 2 months, and the demand from weaving is weakening. Attention should be paid to the implementation of filament production cuts [2] - For investment strategies, the unilateral rating is neutral, and there are no suggestions for inter - period or inter - commodity strategies [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3818 yuan/ton (a change of +195 yuan/ton or +5.38% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 3598 yuan/ton (a change of +76 yuan/ton or +2.16% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China was - 13 yuan/ton (a decrease of 8 yuan/ton compared to the previous day) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production margin of ethylene - based EG was - 110 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day), and that of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 1046 yuan/ton (a decrease of 72 yuan/ton compared to the previous day) [1] - The overall domestic ethylene glycol operating rate has risen above 70% [2] International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis on the international price difference was provided in the text, but a figure (Figure 9) about the international price difference (US FOB - China CFR) was mentioned [20] Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - Weaving orders are weakening marginally, and the operating rate is declining rapidly, while the polyester operating rate remains firm. Attention should be paid to the implementation of filament production cuts due to weakening profitability [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF's data on Mondays, the MEG inventory at major ports in East China was 84.4 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2.5 tons); according to Longzhong's data on Thursdays, it was 61.7 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 13.8 tons) [2] - The planned arrival volume at major ports in East China last week was 11.1 tons and 3 tons at secondary ports; this week, the planned arrival volume at major ports is 11.8 tons and 2.7 tons at secondary ports. The overall volume is moderately high, and the main port is expected to see a slight inventory build - up [2] - The expected inventory build - up in the next 1 - 2 months is around 50 tons [2]