燃料油日报：市场驱动有限，FU仓单压力增加-20251225

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2) Core View of the Report - The crude oil price has rebounded from the low level recently, but the expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed, and the resistance above still exists. The fuel oil market has limited overall drivers with a mix of long and short factors [2]. - The cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil has stabilized and rebounded recently, but the supply is still abundant, and the new 164,000 tons of FU futures warehouse receipts this week, with a total of 234,000 tons, suppress the market [2]. - The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Kuwait and Nigeria is expected to increase due to changes in refinery maintenance. Although the end - of - year demand for marine fuel is boosted and there is component diversion by gasoline and diesel, the supply is abundant, and the valuation will be continuously suppressed [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.08% at 2,480 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.47% at 3,014 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Other strategies (cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, options): None [3] Charts - There are 18 charts in total, including Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil spot prices, swap contracts, month - to - month spreads, and domestic fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests [4]