铅价走高之际，炼厂让渡升贴水以求出货

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead price is oscillating at a low level, with continued inventory decline and reduced production of secondary lead providing support, but the spot market is weakening at the end of the year. It is expected that the main contract will trade in the range of 16,750 - 17,350 yuan/ton. Operational strategies suggest corresponding buying or selling hedging within this range, and an option strategy of selling a wide straddle is recommended [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On December 24, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$42.30/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 150 yuan/ton to 17,025 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 20.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 125 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 175 yuan/ton to 17,075 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 175 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,900 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white casings remained unchanged at 10,050 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black casings increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On December 24, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,030 yuan/ton and closed at 17,225 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 68,022 lots, an increase of 23,412 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 56,538 lots, a decrease of 1,548 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a high of 17,305 yuan/ton and a low of 17,000 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,215 yuan/ton and closed at 17,275 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the afternoon close of the previous day. Lead smelters in Henan mainly shipped long - term contracts, and traders actively cleared inventories. The spot offer for scattered lots was at a discount of 100 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2602 contract. In Hunan, smelters offered at a premium of 10 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead price, and traders offered at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price to sell off stocks. In Yunnan, holders offered at a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead price for just - in - time transactions. The downstream mainly consumed inventories or took delivery of long - term contracts. Some smelters lowered the premium of their quotes to sell, and some traders temporarily closed their accounts after selling out their inventories and did not participate in trading. The market trading was light [2] Inventory - On December 24, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 20,000 tons, a decrease of 30 tons from the same period last week. As of December 24, the LME lead inventory was 248,900 tons, a decrease of 4,200 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The lead price is expected to trade in the range of 16,750 - 17,350 yuan/ton. Operational strategies suggest corresponding buying or selling hedging within this range, and the option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [4]