国贸商品指数日报-20251225

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday (December 24), most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with precious metals leading the gains, while shipping futures led the declines. Industrial and agricultural products mostly rose. The overall market showed different trends in various sectors, and the future trends depend on multiple factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Market Performance - On December 24, most domestic commodity futures closed higher. Precious metals had significant gains, with silver rising 8.12% and palladium and platinum hitting the daily limit. Energy materials, basic metals, chemicals, and other sectors mostly rose, while shipping futures declined, with the container shipping index (European line) dropping 1.63% [1]. - The overall commodity index rose 0.97%, from 2294.47 on December 23 to 2316.76 on December 24 [1]. Sector Analysis - Black - series: Most black - series commodities rose. Due to weak terminal demand, the futures prices of finished products fluctuated with market sentiment and related varieties in the industry chain. The steel market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, with the domestic macro - policy in a window period, and the growth rates of industries such as real estate and infrastructure continuing to decline. The overall fundamentals lack effective driving factors, and the market is likely to fluctuate within a range, with attention paid to macro - policy changes [1]. - Basic metals: All basic metals rose. The copper market's tight ore situation continued, and there were concerns about the possible spread to the smelting end. The hot precious - metal market also drove the copper price. Lithium carbonate continued to rise, reaching a two - year high. The recent rapid increase was due to supply - side interference, and the market interpreted the news of the first environmental assessment information publicity stage of the Xiawo lithium mine as slower - than - expected resumption of production. With short - term supply pressure relieved, downstream demand remaining resilient, and optimistic market sentiment spreading, the futures price of lithium carbonate remained strong [1]. - Energy and chemical products: Most energy and chemical products rose. International oil prices rose for the third consecutive day, and the SC crude oil main contract fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly higher. In the future, although the oversupply of crude oil is a general trend, the US blockade of Venezuela has alleviated the oversupply pressure to some extent, and other geopolitical factors have also emerged. It is reasonable to estimate a risk premium of about $3 for the current oil price, and the future oil price is likely to fluctuate [1]. - Oilseeds and oils: Most oilseeds and oils rose. Due to position adjustment before the Christmas holiday, US soybeans rebounded slightly, but the market was still cautious about the export sales speed of US soybeans, and the expected high - yield in South America also restricted the rise of US soybean prices. The domestic market was in a shock - adjustment state. The supply side of US soybeans is waiting for the January USDA report to finalize production, and the main logic has shifted to the demand side. The short - term trend is likely to remain weak. On Wednesday, oils fluctuated higher, and rapeseed oil led the oils to rebound from the low level. The domestic oil market continued to build a bottom, following the international oil market. Rapeseed oil is still in the process of destocking, which led to a significant increase in the near - month contract. In contrast, palm oil and soybean oil faced selling pressure at high levels, and the market may fluctuate at low levels repeatedly without new positive news, and capital games may intensify [1].