需求难有起色，关注成本寻底节奏

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for asphalt is "Bearish" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, asphalt demand is unlikely to improve significantly due to financial constraints on road projects and shrinking housing new construction areas. The cost side will be a more important concern. Oil prices will face supply pressure at least in the first half of 2026, and the asphalt price is expected to continue to decline. If the downward pressure on the cost side eases, the price may bottom out during the seasonal demand peak in the second half of the year. The annual price is projected to range between 2,600 - 3,400 yuan/ton [3][70][71] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. 2025 Annual Review of Asphalt Market - Domestic Supply Increase and Resilient Imports: From January to November 2025, the national petroleum asphalt production reached 26.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. The increase in supply was mainly due to the decline in international oil prices and the widening discount of diluted asphalt. Local refineries' production was more volatile, with an output of 14.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.13%, while the output of major refineries was 12.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.02%. In the same period, the domestic asphalt import volume reached 3.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, with Middle Eastern asphalt gradually squeezing the market share of Southeast Asian countries [17][26] - Demand Growth Driven by Road Project Deliveries: In 2025, as the end - year of the 14th Five - Year Plan, road construction projects entered the concentrated delivery period. From January to November 2025, the apparent consumption of asphalt reached 29.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.25%, with a 25% year - on - year increase in the third quarter. However, highway investment continued to decline, and the waterproofing market demand was weak due to the low real - estate climate [28] 2. Persistent Tight Funds, Road Demand Hard to Improve Substantially - New Road Construction: Most road construction projects rely on government fiscal funds or special bonds. Currently, local governments face significant financial pressure, making it difficult for project funds to be in place in a timely manner. Although the new special bond issuance increased in 2025, the funds available for new road projects continued to shrink [37][38] - Road Maintenance: The maintenance funds for expressways and ordinary national and provincial roads are facing shortages. The establishment of toll stations can only meet their own funding needs, and the overall road maintenance fund gap will exist for a long time [40] 3. Refineries without Quotas Gradually Exit, No Excessive Concerns about Raw Material Imports - Exit of Refineries without Quotas under New Consumption Tax Deduction Policy: Since 2025, Shandong Province has adjusted the consumption tax deduction policy for local refineries, which has led to an increase in asphalt production costs. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import of diluted asphalt decreased by 40% year - on - year, and many small and medium - sized local refineries without quotas have stopped production [43][44] - Limited Impact of US Sanctions on Raw Material Imports: Although the US has imposed sanctions on Venezuela and Russia, the supply of asphalt raw materials remains stable overall. In 2025, the import of Merey crude oil increased significantly, and other oil types such as Urals, Buzios, and Mero also became important supplements [52][54] 4. International Oil Prices are Still Suppressed by Supply Release, Cost - Side Rebound is Restricted - Supply Growth in Non - US and Non - OPEC+ Countries: In 2026, the global crude oil production is expected to reach 79.55 million barrels per day, with non - US and non - OPEC+ countries contributing an incremental supply of 230,000 barrels per day. Brazil, Canada, and Guyana will be the main sources of supply growth [61] - Inventory Pressure: Since September 2025, the global crude oil floating storage has increased sharply. If the floating storage is released into the market, it will put pressure on oil prices in the first half of 2026 [67] 5. Investment Recommendations - In 2026, the asphalt price is expected to continue to decline in the first half of the year. If the downward pressure on the cost side eases, it may bottom out during the seasonal demand peak in the second half of the year. The annual price is projected to range between 2,600 - 3,400 yuan/ton [71]