Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Jinmao (00817.HK) is maintained at "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company has shown strong sales performance against market trends, with profit recovery expected to continue through the cycle. The sales amount for the first half of 2025 reached 53.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, marking its entry into the top 10 in the full-caliber sales ranking by CRIC [6][17]. - The company is actively reserving core land parcels to ensure long-term profitability, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 estimated at 1.11 billion, 1.56 billion, and 1.62 billion respectively, and corresponding EPS of 0.08, 0.12, and 0.12 [5][9]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance and Land Acquisition - The company has adjusted its development strategy since 2023, leading to a continuous improvement in fundamentals after hitting a low point. The sales performance in the first half of 2025 was strong, with a focus on acquiring core land parcels to secure long-term profitability [17]. - The sales amount for the first half of 2025 was 53.4 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 19.6%. The average signed price for residential properties rose to 22,000 yuan per square meter [24]. - The company has adopted a dual-focus strategy, acquiring 41 projects since 2024, all concentrated in core cities and areas, with an average sales net profit margin exceeding 10% [29]. Investment Properties and Property Services - The investment property segment has been operating steadily, providing stable cash flow despite revenue declines due to the pandemic since 2020. The company focuses on high-quality asset management and gradually exits low-efficiency assets [59]. - The property service segment has seen a year-on-year growth of 11% in management scale, reaching 1.1 million square meters in the first half of 2025, with 85% of new projects located in strategically important cities [7]. Financial Status and Debt Structure - The company has maintained a robust financial status, optimizing its domestic and foreign debt structure and reducing financing costs. The average financing cost for new domestic and foreign financing in the first half of 2025 was 2.70%, down by 0.69 percentage points from the end of 2024 [8]. - The company has successfully issued multiple low-interest bonds, and its debt structure remains healthy, with all three red lines maintained in the green [8]. Profitability Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with projected revenues for 2025-2027 showing a positive trend. The projected net profit for 2025 is 1.11 billion, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 13.5 [9][5]. - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the company's strong sales performance, strategic land acquisitions, and expected recovery in profitability [5].
中国金茂（00817）：港股公司深度报告：销售业绩逆势强劲，盈利修复穿越周期