Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [6][7]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning from a cyclical to a growth-oriented business model, focusing on molten salt energy storage, which is expected to enhance both performance and valuation, leading to a "Davis Double" effect [6][7]. - The traditional business is showing signs of recovery, supported by acquisitions that strengthen the company's foundational operations [6][7]. - The molten salt energy storage market is projected to grow significantly, driven by applications in concentrated solar power and flexible coal power generation, with an expected cumulative installed capacity of 19.1 GW by 2030 [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Transition from Cyclical to Growth - The company, established in 2001, has built an integrated production chain for nitric acid and its derivatives, becoming a major player in the domestic market [16]. - The company began generating revenue from molten salt-grade potassium nitrate in 2021 and is expected to see significant sales growth in 2025 as production capacity ramps up [16]. 2. Recovery of Traditional Business - Nitric acid prices are expected to stabilize due to a supportive raw material environment, particularly liquid ammonia, which is crucial for production [40][45]. - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from a recovery in nitric acid and potassium nitrate prices, aided by its integrated production capabilities [6][7]. 3. Growth Engine of Molten Salt Energy Storage - The company is developing a complete product matrix for molten salt, with projects in concentrated solar power and compressed air energy storage expected to drive demand [6][7]. - The molten salt market is anticipated to require 206,000 tons by 2030, with significant contributions from the solar power sector as costs decrease [6][7]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 58 million, 86 million, and 115 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 39, 26, and 20 [5][7]. - The target market capitalization is estimated at 2.4 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 9% from current levels [7]. 5. Market Dynamics and Competitive Position - The company benefits from a flexible production system that allows for cost optimization and efficient resource allocation across its product lines [62]. - The agricultural-grade potassium nitrate market is expected to grow due to increasing demand for high-quality crops and supportive government policies [50][52].
迪尔化工（920304）：熔盐储能双基地版图建成在即，从周期向成长转型