金融期货早评-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures - Overseas: The US GDP in Q3 grew by 4.3% year - on - year, and the job market recovered with the initial jobless claims falling to 214,000 last week, which weakened the rate - cut expectation [1]. - Domestic: The government will continue a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. The key task in 2026 is to expand domestic demand, but the domestic demand in November was weak [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - In the short term, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate may approach and briefly break through 7.0. In 2026, it is expected to break through 7.0 and depreciate moderately, driven by factors such as the narrowing of the monetary policy cycle gap, the strengthening of domestic economic fundamentals, and the inflow of international capital [3]. Stock Index - The upward drive of the stock index has strengthened, but there is still pressure above. It is expected to be oscillatory and bullish in the short term [4]. Treasury Bonds - Maintain a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term bond market, and use a mid - line strategy to bet on monetary policy support. Adopt a band - trading strategy for short - term trading. Hold mid - term long positions and consider taking profits on short - term long positions [5]. Container Shipping on the European Line - The spot price increase has encountered resistance, and the futures price has fallen under pressure. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and the future trend is uncertain [5][6]. Commodities - Platinum and Palladium: In the medium - long term, the bull market foundation of platinum remains. In the short term, beware of adjustment risks due to the rapid expansion of the spot - futures price difference [9][10]. - Gold and Silver: In the short term, gold and silver are oscillating at high levels. Gold is still in a relatively strong state, while silver has high price risks. In the medium - long term, they are expected to rise [11][12]. - Copper: The multi - empty game in the 96,000 - 97,000 range has intensified. Consider different trading strategies according to different situations [12][13]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum is expected to be oscillatory and bullish in the medium term; alumina is in an oversupply situation; casting aluminum alloy is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [14][15]. - Zinc: It will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term [15]. - Nickel - Stainless Steel: They are operating strongly, but beware of the height [16]. - Tin: It will be in a wide - range oscillation, and use an interval - trading strategy [18]. - Lead: It will oscillate in the range of 16,700 - 17,500 in the short term [19]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: They are oscillating at a low level, with support below and pressure above [20]. - Iron Ore: The price fluctuation has decreased, and it will run in an interval [20][21]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The inventory structure of coking coal is expected to improve, and the downside space of the coking coal futures is limited. The valuation repair drive of coke may weaken [22]. - Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese: They are expected to be oscillatory and bullish in the short term, but the upward space is limited [22]. Energy and Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: The current market is slightly bullish. Consider short - term low - buying operations [24][25][26]. - Crude Oil: The tense situation between the US and Venezuela has brought upward drive to short - term oil prices [26][27][28]. - LPG: The near - term is supported, while the expectation is under pressure [29][30]. - PTA - PX: PX has a good supply - demand pattern and is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. PTA's processing fee is expected to rise, but the space is limited [31][33]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: The supply - demand balance has improved slightly, but the inventory and cost factors still suppress the valuation [35][36]. - Methanol: The fundamentals are mixed, with a near - term weak and far - term strong expectation [37]. - PP: The supply pressure is expected to be relieved in January, and it can be considered to go long at a low price [39][40]. - PE: The supply pressure may be relieved, and the spot price has rebounded [42][43]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: Pure benzene is in an oversupply situation, and styrene is oscillating [43][44]. - Asphalt: The market is oscillating and bullish in the short term, and pay attention to the winter - storage policy and geopolitical factors [44][45][46]. - Rubber: The rubber price is oscillating under the influence of emotions, and the overall fundamental pressure is high [47]. - Urea: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support below and pressure above [50]. - Soda Ash and Caustic Soda: Soda ash is waiting for supply variables, glass needs to digest inventory, and caustic soda is expected to oscillate weakly [50][51][53]. - Log: It is in an oscillatory market, and consider double - selling strategies [53]. - Propylene: It is expected to oscillate at a low level before more overhauls occur [55]. Agricultural Products - Pigs: In the long - term, it can be bullish, but in the short - to - medium term, focus on the fundamentals. The near - month has high supply pressure [57]. - Oilseeds: The outer - market soybean will oscillate in the short term, and the inner - market soybean meal depends on the reserve - release supply [58][59]. - Oils and Fats: They are in a wide - range oscillation, with palm oil being relatively strong [59][60]. - Cotton: In the short term, the hedging pressure on cotton prices is being digested. In the long - term, the supply - demand may be tight, and pay attention to pre - holiday orders [61][62][63]. - Sugar: The short - term basis has been repaired, and the domestic price may oscillate [63][64]. - Eggs: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, and the price is under pressure. Consider light - position long positions for rebound [64]. - Apples: The near - term is strong, and the far - term is weak. Wait for the retracement to go long [65][66]. - Red Dates: The short - term price is oscillating at a low level, and pay attention to pre - holiday procurement. The long - term supply - demand is loose, and the price is under pressure [67]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: The US job market has recovered, and the GDP in Q3 grew strongly. In China, the government will continue a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, but the domestic demand in November was weak [1]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central bank's fourth - quarter meeting emphasized maintaining the stability of the capital market [2]. Stock Index - The stock index was generally strong except for the Shanghai 50 index. The Beijing property - market policy is beneficial to the real - estate sector, but the index still faces pressure above [4]. Treasury Bonds - The trading volume of treasury bonds decreased, and the rebound momentum was not sustained. Adopt a mid - line strategy for the medium - term and a band - trading strategy for the short - term [5]. Container Shipping on the European Line - The futures price of the container shipping on the European line fell under pressure. There are positive factors such as the Spring Festival capacity reduction plan and negative factors such as the poor implementation of the price increase [5][6]. Commodities - Platinum and Palladium: The prices of platinum and palladium fluctuated, and the trading of futures was affected by factors such as the Fed's policy and the supply - demand fundamentals [9]. - Gold and Silver: The prices of gold and silver were oscillating at high levels. The market was affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate expectation and the supply - demand situation [11]. - Copper: The price of copper was in a multi - empty game in the 96,000 - 97,000 range, and different trading strategies were recommended [12][13]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be stable in the short term, alumina is in an oversupply situation, and casting aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up with aluminum [14][15]. - Zinc: The price of zinc was oscillating widely, affected by factors such as the LME inventory and the supply - demand situation [15]. - Nickel - Stainless Steel: The prices of nickel and stainless steel were rising, but the fundamental improvement was limited [16]. - Tin: The price of tin was oscillating widely and was under pressure at night. It is expected to be in an interval - trading range [18]. - Lead: The price of lead was rebounding slightly, affected by factors such as the LME inventory and the supply - demand situation [19]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil were oscillating, affected by factors such as the cost of raw materials and the demand [20]. - Iron Ore: The price of iron ore was oscillating, with supply pressure and demand support [20][21]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The production of coking coal is expected to decline, and the demand for coke is weakening. The inventory structure of coking coal is expected to improve [22]. - Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were oscillating, affected by factors such as the supply - demand situation and the cost [22]. Energy and Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: The prices of pulp and offset paper were oscillating at a low level. The supply of pulp was affected by factors such as the Indonesian flood, and the demand for offset paper was expected to improve [24][25][26]. - Crude Oil: The price of crude oil was affected by the tense situation between the US and Venezuela, and it is expected to rise in the short term [26][27][28]. - LPG: The LPG price was affected by the supply - demand situation and the international market, with a near - term support and a far - term pressure [29][30]. - PTA - PX: The supply - demand situation of PX and PTA was complex, and the prices were expected to be affected by factors such as the production capacity and the demand [31][33]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: The supply - demand balance of MEG and bottle chips has improved slightly, but the inventory and cost factors still suppress the valuation [35][36]. - Methanol: The fundamentals of methanol were mixed, with a near - term weak and far - term strong expectation [37]. - PP: The supply pressure of PP is expected to be relieved in January, and the price is expected to rise [39][40]. - PE: The supply pressure of PE may be relieved, and the spot price has rebounded [42][43]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: Pure benzene is in an oversupply situation, and styrene is oscillating [43][44]. - Asphalt: The asphalt market is oscillating and bullish in the short term, affected by factors such as the winter - storage policy and geopolitical factors [44][45][46]. - Rubber: The rubber price is oscillating under the influence of emotions, and the overall fundamental pressure is high [47]. - Urea: The urea market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support below and pressure above [50]. - Soda Ash and Caustic Soda: Soda ash is waiting for supply variables, glass needs to digest inventory, and caustic soda is expected to oscillate weakly [50][51][53]. - Log: The log market is oscillating, and double - selling strategies can be considered [53]. - Propylene: The propylene price is expected to oscillate at a low level before more overhauls occur [55]. Agricultural Products - Pigs: The price of pigs is affected by factors such as the supply - demand situation and policies. The long - term is bullish, and the short - to - medium term focuses on the fundamentals [57]. - Oilseeds: The outer - market soybean is oscillating, and the inner - market soybean meal depends on the reserve - release supply [58][59]. - Oils and Fats: The prices of oils and fats are oscillating widely, with palm oil and rapeseed oil rebounding [59][60]. - Cotton: The cotton price is affected by factors such as the supply - demand situation and policies. Pay attention to pre - holiday orders [61][62][63]. - Sugar: The short - term basis of sugar has been repaired, and the domestic price may oscillate [63][64]. - Eggs: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, and the price is under pressure. Consider light - position long positions for rebound [64]. - Apples: The near - term apple price is strong, and the far - term is weak. Wait for the retracement to go long [65][66]. - Red Dates: The short - term red - date price is oscillating at a low level, and pay attention to pre - holiday procurement. The long - term supply - demand is loose, and the price is under pressure [67].