国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251225

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each commodity, it gives a trend strength rating ranging from -2 to 2, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [11]. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various energy and chemical commodities, including their current market trends, fundamental data, and future outlooks. It offers trading suggestions based on the analysis of each commodity's supply - demand dynamics, cost factors, and market sentiment [12]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: The unilateral price trend is strong, squeezing downstream profits. The short - term trend is strong due to the tight supply expectation that cannot be falsified for now. Suggestions include going long on PX and short on PF/PR/BZ/EB, and considering a 5 - 9 positive spread trade [12]. - PTA: With strong cost support, the unilateral trend is upward. Suggestions are to go long on PTA and short on PF/PR/MEG/BZ/EB, and hold positive spread positions [12]. - MEG: After the news of a 720,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan planning to shut down next month, the ethylene glycol futures rose. However, the high port inventory and polyester production cut expectations limit the price increase [12]. Rubber - The rubber market is oscillating strongly. Although the inventory in Qingdao has increased, the cost support still exists. The market is waiting for further guidance from demand and raw materials [13][15]. Synthetic Rubber - It is in a situation of weak current reality but strong future expectations, entering an oscillating phase. The short - term rise has slowed down due to the marginal weakening of the fundamentals of butadiene and synthetic rubber [18]. Asphalt - The asphalt spot price is temporarily stable. The recent increase in production capacity utilization is due to some refineries resuming production. The short - term trend is neutral [20][29]. LLDPE - The basis of LLDPE is weakening, and spot trading volume is increasing. The raw material cost is oscillating, and the supply - demand pressure still exists in the medium - term [31][32]. PP - The PDH profit of PP is compressed again, and the futures price is oscillating steadily. The cost support is limited, and the demand is weak. The short - term trend is neutral [33][34]. Caustic Soda - The rebound height of caustic soda is limited. Although there is a short - term rebound due to capital transfer and supply cut expectations, the high - production and high - inventory pattern remains during the Spring Festival [38]. Pulp - The pulp market is oscillating. The futures price is supported by the firm overseas quotes and port inventory reduction, but limited by the weak domestic demand [44]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The overall market trading atmosphere is average, and processing plants purchase raw materials as needed [49]. Methanol - The methanol market is oscillating. The port inventory has increased significantly, and the market shows a differentiated operation. The short - term trend is neutral [54]. Urea - In the short - term, urea is oscillating, but the 05 contract has support due to the strong expectation of the 2026 agricultural demand peak season. The medium - term price center is expected to move up [59]. Styrene - Styrene is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The processing fee is expected to remain at a relatively high level in 2026, but the price may be restricted by the high inventory of downstream products [62][63]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The comprehensive supply is decreasing, and downstream enterprises purchase on a need - to - basis [65]. LPG, Propylene - LPG is strong in the short - term but under pressure in the long - term. Propylene's spot price is weak. The short - term trends of both are neutral [67][68]. PVC - The short - term rebound space of PVC is limited. The high - production and high - inventory pattern is difficult to change in the short - term [77]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil has returned to an oscillating market, waiting for a driving force. Low - sulfur fuel oil is oscillating strongly, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has rebounded slightly [80]. Freight Index (European Line) - The near - month contracts of the freight index (European line) are oscillating, and the far - month contracts should pay attention to the progress of the second - stage cease - fire negotiation in Gaza. The short - term 02 contract is expected to oscillate widely between 1700 - 1900 points, and it is advisable to wait and see. For the 04 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively high probability of success [95]. Short - Fiber, Bottle Chip - Short - fiber is following the upward trend of raw materials in the short - term, with a compressed processing fee. Bottle chips are also following the upward trend of raw materials. The short - term trends of both are neutral [97][98]. Offset Printing Paper - It is advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper. The market price is stable, and the trading atmosphere is average [100]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Although its valuation is at a historical low, the rebound needs a substantial change in the supply - demand pattern [61].