中辉能化观点-20251225

Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual ratings for each commodity, including cautious sell, short - term rebound, and cautious buy [1][3][6] Core Views - The overall view is that the energy and chemical industry is facing complex situations with factors such as geopolitical uncertainties, supply - demand imbalances, and cost fluctuations influencing prices. Different commodities have different trends, with some facing downward pressure and others having short - term rebound opportunities [1][3][6] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - Core view: Short - term rebound due to geopolitical uncertainties in South America, but in the off - season with supply surplus, overall bearish. - Main logic: Geopolitical issues in South America and the US seizing Venezuelan oil tankers boost prices in the short - term. However, there is a supply surplus in the off - season, with OPEC+ in an expansion cycle, increasing global floating storage and in - transit crude, and rising US inventories [1][9][10] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of SC [435 - 445] [11] LPG - Core view: Cautious sell. - Main logic: The cost side is under pressure as the long - term trend of crude oil is downward. Although there is some resilience in downstream chemical demand, inventories are still a concern [1][15] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of PG [4050 - 4150] [16] L (Plastic) - Core view: Short - term rebound but overall bearish. - Main logic: Market sentiment is improving, leading to a short - term rebound. However, the fundamentals are weak with a high supply and low demand situation. There is also pressure to reduce inventory [20] - Strategy: Exit short positions in the short - term and wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread. Focus on the range of L [6300 - 6500] [20] PP - Core view: Short - term rebound but overall bearish. - Main logic: It rebounds along with the chemical sector, but there is high inventory pressure in December. PDH profit compression increases the expectation of maintenance [24] - Strategy: Exit short positions in the short - term and wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Short the MTO05 spread. Focus on the range of PP [6200 - 6400] [24] PVC - Core view: High inventory restricts the rebound space. - Main logic: Lanthanum carbonate price reduction leads to a short - term rebound. However, due to seasonal off - peak demand and high inventory, the long - term trend depends on inventory reduction [28] - Strategy: Take partial profits on long positions. Wait for inventory reduction to go long in the long - term. Industrial customers should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of V [4650 - 4800] [28] PTA - Core view: Consider buying on dips. - Main logic: Supply - side maintenance is in progress, and the short - term supply - demand balance is tight. However, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January. Downstream demand is good currently but expected to weaken [30] - Strategy: Focus on buying opportunities for the 05 contract on dips. Focus on the range of TA [5060 - 5150] [31] MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - Core view: Rebound but consider shorting on the rebound. - Main logic: Domestic production load is increasing, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December. Although the valuation is low, there is a lack of upward drivers [33] - Strategy: Look for shorting opportunities on the rebound. Focus on the range of EG05 [2139 - 2179] [34] Methanol - Core view: Cautious about chasing long positions. - Main logic: Domestic production load is at a high level, and there is still supply pressure in December. The demand side is slightly weakening [37] - Strategy: Do not chase long positions. Look for buying opportunities for the 05 contract on dips [39] Urea - Core view: Range - bound oscillation. - Main logic: Supply pressure is expected to increase in December, while the winter storage has limited positive effects. There is still an arbitrage window between domestic and overseas markets [41] - Strategy: Expect a weakening oscillation. Look for buying opportunities for the 05 contract on dips. Focus on the range of UR05 [1710 - 1745] [43] LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) - Core view: Supply is sufficient, and the price is under pressure. - Main logic: Although it is the consumption peak season, the relatively mild weather in the US reduces demand support. The supply side is relatively abundant [47] - Strategy: Focus on the range of NG [3.602 - 4.054] [47] Asphalt - Core view: Short - term rebound due to South American geopolitical conflicts. - Main logic: It is mainly affected by the cost of crude oil. The short - term rebound is due to South American geopolitical uncertainties, but the supply - demand situation is weak [50] - Strategy: Take profit on short positions. Focus on the range of BU [2950 - 3050] [51] Glass - Core view: Rebound at a low level. - Main logic: Cold repair is increasing, and the daily melting volume is decreasing. High inventory restricts the short - term rebound. The real estate market is in an adjustment period [55] - Strategy: Exit short positions in the short - term and wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Focus on the range of FG [1030 - 1070] [55] Soda Ash - Core view: Weak oscillation. - Main logic: Supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing. There is a plan to put into production a large - scale device at the end of the month, and the demand from the real estate and glass industries is weak [59] - Strategy: Take partial profit on short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Focus on the range of SA [1150 - 1200] [59]