Changjiang Securities·2025-12-25 06:36Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in fixed asset investment (FAI) in 2025, with infrastructure investment becoming a drag on the economy, prompting the economic work conference to emphasize "investment stabilization" [2][9] - Looking ahead to 2026, the report suggests that "active fiscal policies" will drive investment stabilization, with a focus on structural opportunities in the construction sector, including western infrastructure, overseas engineering, and new infrastructure [2][9] Group 1: Economic Overview - In 2025, FAI experienced a comprehensive decline, with infrastructure investment significantly dropping, particularly in the third quarter, where narrow infrastructure investment turned negative, declining by 8.7% in October [23][28] - The report notes that the actual situation of infrastructure investment may have deteriorated earlier than expected in 2024, despite apparent growth in infrastructure investment [30][34] Group 2: Structural Opportunities - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities in the construction sector, particularly in western infrastructure projects, overseas engineering, and new infrastructure driven by technological advancements [45][46] - Specific recommendations include focusing on high-dividend leading companies in western regions, such as Sichuan Road and Bridge, and exploring opportunities in Xinjiang and Tibet [9][10] Group 3: Overseas Engineering - The report indicates that overseas engineering demand remains strong, driven by favorable client structures and business models of central enterprises, as well as private enterprises expanding into international markets [10][11] - Key recommendations for overseas engineering include companies like China National Materials, Jianghe Group, and Jinggong Steel Structure, which are expected to perform well in terms of earnings and dividends [10][11] Group 4: New Infrastructure - The report identifies several sectors within new infrastructure that are expected to see growth, including clean rooms, commercial aerospace, nuclear power, and low-altitude economy, driven by technological advancements and safety demands [10][11] - Specific companies recommended in these sectors include Yaxiang Integration for clean rooms and China Nuclear Engineering for nuclear power projects [10][11] Group 5: Traditional Demand - The report notes that traditional demand, particularly in real estate, remains under pressure, with new and second-hand housing demand still facing challenges [11] - It highlights the potential turning point for companies like Honglu Steel Structure, which may benefit from improved cyclical sentiment and operational efficiency [11] Group 6: Reform and Restructuring - The report discusses the need for deep reforms in the construction sector to enhance global competitiveness, focusing on identifying quality assets and new business opportunities for central enterprises [12][12] - It also emphasizes the importance of market value management and the potential for mergers and acquisitions in the construction industry [12][12]