白银上涨加速，中期空间仍可期待

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Report's Core View - Silver has entered an accelerated upswing phase, and short - term two - way volatility risks need attention. The quarterly bullish logic for gold and silver remains intact, and the 2026 target range for silver is raised. In 2026, the long - term bull market in gold and silver will continue, and silver's upside elasticity is likely to be released [6][8][9]. Summary by Related Content Event - On December 24, silver surged sharply again. SHFE silver recorded an intraday gain of 8.12%, while SHFE gold edged higher with an intraday increase of 0.63% [4]. Outlook - Short - term situation: Since late November, silver has risen by more than 40% monthly, and year - to - date gains in 2025 are approaching 150%. Its current volatility has reached the highest level of the year but still has room for expansion compared with 2024 and 2020. Near - term event - driven factors may amplify two - way price volatility, such as the New Year holiday, the announcement of the next Federal Reserve Chair nominee, and adjustments to the Bloomberg Commodity Index [6][8]. - Quarterly situation: The bullish logic for gold and silver remains intact. Liquidity - driven trading is the core driver at the quarterly level, and the period between the nomination and assumption of office of the new Federal Reserve Chair is a favorable window for trading liquidity expectations. The LBMA silver lease rates remain elevated, indicating a persistent tightness in the physical silver market [6][8]. - 2026 outlook: The narrative of USD credit contraction will continue to dominate the long - term bull market in gold and silver. The global economy may transition from a soft landing to a mild recovery, pro - cyclical assets will benefit, the gold - silver ratio has room to decline, and silver's upside elasticity is likely to be released. The 2026 forecast range for silver is raised, and if a short - squeeze occurs, LBMA silver prices could reach USD 50 - 100 per ounce. Gold is expected to maintain a choppy upward trajectory with a 2026 target range of USD 3,800 - 5,000 per ounce [6][7][9].