芳烃市场周报：成本支撑，PX表现偏强（PX，纯苯，苯乙烯）-20251225

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PX has maintained a strong pattern since the fourth quarter due to improved downstream demand, positive news such as Sino - US tariff talks, and India's relaxation of BIS certification. It is expected to remain in a tight supply - demand situation until the maintenance season from March to May 2026 [3]. - The pure benzene market is in a long - term supply - demand imbalance. New domestic production capacity has led to oversupply, putting downward pressure on prices. Although there is some support from the strong external aromatic hydrocarbon prices and raw material rebounds, the oversupply situation is expected to continue until the maintenance season [4]. - The styrene market has shown a decline overall. Although there have been short - term rebounds, the fundamental supply - demand situation is weak. In the short term, the market is trading on the strength of aromatic hydrocarbon prices and export news. In the medium term, there may be an opportunity for improvement in the supply - demand pattern in the second quarter if upstream production contracts and port inventories are further reduced [6]. 3. Summary by Directory PX Market - Cost: International oil prices have rebounded, leading to a continuous increase in PX's external market price. As of December 24, Asian PX closed at $901/ton, up $92.17/ton from the end of the third quarter. The spread between PX and naphtha reached $360.75/ton, up $143.67/ton from the end of the third quarter. Sinopec raised its December PX listing price to 7,000 yuan/ton [3]. - Supply: This week's PX output was 748,200 tons, with a weekly average domestic PX capacity utilization rate of 89.21%, both unchanged from the previous week. Some PX plants are under maintenance, but overall, the production enthusiasm of PX plants remains high, and there are no changes in the operation of plants [3]. - Demand: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of downstream PTA was 73.81%, unchanged from the previous week and 8.41% lower than the same period last year. There were no new adjustments to domestic plants this week [3]. Pure Benzene Market - Spot and Futures: The pure benzene market has been in a long - term supply - demand imbalance. With high port inventories and expectations of further inventory accumulation, the far - month futures prices have been under pressure. The futures prices have declined from a high of 6,439 yuan/ton in late July to a low of 5,353 yuan/ton in mid - November and then stabilized at a low level [4]. - Supply and Demand: In November, the national pure benzene output was 1.908 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.03%. The capacity utilization rate in November was 76.48%. The import volume in November was 459,600 tons, remaining at a high level. Overall, supply exceeds demand, and many downstream styrene plants are under maintenance [4]. - Inventory: As of December 22, 2025, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 273,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous period, a 5% increase [4]. - Profit: Terminal demand is insufficient. Among the five major downstream products of pure benzene, styrene, adipic acid, and phenol are still in a loss - making state, but the profit of pure benzene itself has recovered, and the profits of caprolactam and aniline have further increased, while the loss of disproportionation devices has increased [4]. Styrene Market - Spot and Futures Performance: The main styrene contract has rebounded since mid - month, mainly due to the increase in raw material and external market prices. The current mainstream price in East China is 6,590 yuan/ton, remaining stable. There has been a slight increase in port inventories, with stable rigid demand and an unexpected decrease in supply [5]. - Industrial Chain Profit: From December 11 - 17, 2025, the average profit of non - integrated styrene plants in China was - 131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 73 yuan/ton from the previous period, a 127.60% decrease. On December 24, the daily profit of non - integrated styrene plants in China was - 177 yuan/ton, a decrease in losses compared to the previous working day [5]. - Industrial Chain Operation: From December 12 - 18, 2025, the total output of styrene plants in China was 346,800 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous period, a 2.36% increase. The capacity utilization rate was 69.13%, an increase of 1.02%. Some plants such as Sinochem Quanzhou, Tianjin Bohua, and Northeast Baolai are under maintenance [5]. - Downstream: The consumption of ABS, PS, and EPS during the period was 261,800 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons from the previous week, a 3.89% decrease. The operation rates of the three major downstream plants have all declined, and the overall profitability of the industry is not expected to be good [5]. - Inventory: As of December 22, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu port samples was 139,300 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons from the previous period, a 3.41% increase. The commercial inventory was 84,550 tons, an increase of 2,250 tons from the previous period, a 2.73% increase [5].