食品饮料：对欧盟部分乳制品进口反补贴，利好国内乳制品深加工

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has announced a preliminary ruling on anti-subsidy measures against certain dairy products imported from the EU, which is expected to benefit domestic dairy processing [1][20] - The investigation revealed that the EU provided substantial subsidies to its dairy sector, leading to significant damage to the domestic industry in China, with the preliminary subsidy rates ranging from 28.6% to 42.7% [2][3] - The affected products include cream and cheese, with imports from the EU accounting for a significant share of the Chinese market, which has negatively impacted domestic companies' profitability [3][4] Summary by Sections Section 1: Anti-Subsidy Measures - The Ministry of Commerce decided to impose temporary anti-subsidy duties on EU dairy products starting December 23, 2025, following a year-long investigation [1][2] - The investigation found that the EU's subsidies led to increased imports of subsidized products, which harmed domestic producers [2] Section 2: Market Impact - The total import volume of the six affected product codes from January to November 2025 was 415,000 tons, valued at $1.94 billion [3] - During the investigation period, the market share of subsidized imports in China ranged from 23.61% to 34.63%, with EU products being a major source [3] Section 3: Domestic Industry Response - Domestic milk prices remain low at 3.03 yuan per kilogram, putting pressure on dairy companies and leading to a need for accelerated development in high-value dairy processing [4] - The anti-subsidy measures are expected to create market opportunities for domestic leaders in cheese and cream production, benefiting companies like Li Gao, Hai Rong, and Nanjiao [4]