沪银期货日报-20251225

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report On December 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai silver futures reached a new historical high, which was the result of the resonance of macro - easing expectations, the explosion of industrial demand, geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment, and the market short - squeeze logic. In the short term, Shanghai silver is likely to continue its strong and volatile pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Market: On December 23, 2025, the main 2602 contract of Shanghai silver futures continued its strong upward trend, reaching a maximum of 16,573 yuan/kg during the session and closing at 16,441 yuan/kg, with a daily increase of 4.30%. The market was bullish [2]. - Variety Market: The trading volume of the main 2602 contract of Shanghai silver futures on that day was 1,230,157 lots, a decrease of about 27.8% compared with the previous trading day, indicating that funds were more cautious due to high - level fluctuations. The open interest remained relatively high at 340,510 lots, slightly decreasing from the previous day, showing that the long - position structure was still stable. The market showed the characteristic of "decreasing volume and rising price", reflecting intensified high - level gaming among funds and a dominant bullish sentiment [5]. - Spot Market Data: On December 23, 2025, domestic silver spot prices also reached new records. The prices of national standard No. 1, No. 2, and No. 3 silver were 16,340 yuan/kg, 16,325 yuan/kg, and 16,310 yuan/kg respectively, all rising by 320 yuan/kg compared with the previous day. The narrowing of the discount reflected the tight supply of spot silver and an increased expectation of physical delivery [6]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Macro - aspect: The strengthening of interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical risk - aversion led to a concentrated release of precious - metal buying. The US dollar index continued to weaken, and the RMB against the US dollar broke through 7.02. Tensions in the Middle East and the escalation of Ukraine's attacks on Russia's "shadow fleet" drove global risk - averse funds to flow into precious - metal assets [8]. - Technical - aspect: The daily MACD indicator of the Shanghai silver 2602 contract continued to run above the zero - axis, with the fast and slow lines in a long - position arrangement, indicating a stable upward trend. The daily KDJ indicator continued to give a bullish signal, and the RSI indicator rose but did not enter the overbought range, suggesting sufficient short - term upward momentum [8].