金固股份(002488):公司首次覆盖报告:从轮毂制造商,向多元赛道新材料科技平台升级

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning from a single product supplier focused on wheel manufacturing to a comprehensive solution provider centered on new material technology, specifically the Avatar niobium micro-alloy [3][4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 42.78 billion, 61.08 billion, and 88.82 billion yuan, with net profits of 0.64 billion, 3.31 billion, and 10.03 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding EPS for these years is projected to be 0.06, 0.33, and 1.01 yuan, leading to PE ratios of 131.8, 25.4, and 8.4 times [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Transition from Wheel Manufacturer to New Material Technology Platform - The company has been in the wheel industry for nearly 30 years and is evolving into a new material technology solution provider [12]. - Its main business covers passenger cars and commercial vehicles, with a focus on the Avatar low-carbon wheel and steel wheels [17]. - The company has a relatively dispersed shareholding structure, with stable control by its major shareholders and involvement from state-owned enterprises [22]. 2. Self-developed Avatar Niobium Micro-alloy - The company has developed a revolutionary new material, the Avatar niobium micro-alloy, which addresses pain points in the automotive wheel industry [4][35]. - This new material allows for the production of high-performance, low-cost wheels, facilitating the company's strategic upgrade [4][35]. 3. Expansion of Avatar Product Capacity and New Applications - The demand for Avatar products is increasing, with the company expanding its production capacity to meet new orders from major clients [46]. - The company is also entering the electric two-wheeler market in collaboration with Ninebot, leveraging its existing technology to tap into this emerging market [61]. - In the robotics sector, the company is exploring new application scenarios for the niobium micro-alloy, establishing partnerships with various robotics firms [4][46]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see significant revenue and profit growth starting in 2025, following a period of investment in R&D and capacity expansion [24]. - The financial metrics indicate a recovery in profitability, with gross and net profit margins expected to improve as the Avatar product line gains traction [29][32].