聚聚聚聚2025、12、23：聚聚聚聚聚

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Views PTA - The near - term PTA market is tight. The seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February is lower than in previous years. The recent rebound is significant, and there are marginal demand feedbacks. Consider buying on dips [5][48]. - The supply side has multiple device maintenance plans. The demand side shows that the polyester load remains high in the short - term, but downstream orders are weakening [48]. PX - The overall pattern of PX is expected to be good. It is increasing in volume and price. Short - term supply - demand changes are small, and PXN has strengthened significantly. Pay attention to capital changes [6][74]. - The domestic PX operating rate is 88%, and the Asian load is 78.9%. There are maintenance and restart plans for some devices [6][74]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - The supply of ethylene glycol has marginal improvements, with more overseas maintenance. Polyester has marginal production reduction plans. In December, supply - demand pressure is not large, but seasonal inventory accumulation is expected. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [7][121]. - The supply side has device load adjustments and overseas maintenance. The demand side shows that the polyester load is high, but terminal orders are slightly weakening [121]. Summary by Related Catalogs Terminal and Polyester - Terminal demand is seasonally weakening. The start - up rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing have slightly decreased to 79% (- 4%), 62% (- 5%), and 70% (-). Polyester production and sales have increased due to downstream restocking [9]. - As of December 19, the polyester load is around 91.1%. The polyester cash - flow is squeezed, and the average inventory is around 13.5 days. The inventory of POY, DTY, FDY, and staple fiber is 13.3, 25.6, 13.4, and 7.2 days respectively. The polyester load is expected to be 91% in December and 88% in January [13][14][36]. PTA - Device changes: YS Ningbo plans to restart this week. New materials have maintenance plans in January - February. Ineos 110 plans to restart this weekend, while Ineos 125 will reduce its load and may have maintenance later. Sichuan Energy Investment's restart is postponed to early January. YS Dahua, Hainan, and Dushan 1 are still under maintenance. The maintenance volume in January - February 2026 is not low [42]. - Inventory: As of December 19, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) has decreased to 210 tons, a decrease of 4.3 tons. PTA factory inventory and warehouse receipt inventory have slightly decreased [43]. - Balance sheet: The near - term is tight. The maintenance of suppliers in January - February is high, and the seasonal inventory accumulation pressure is not high [48]. PX - Market performance: Recently, PX has been strong. The Asian disproportionation and short - process benefits have improved significantly. The PXN has strengthened to over 350, and the aromatics spread between the US and Asia has slightly narrowed [64][67]. - Device dynamics: The domestic operating rate is 88%, and the Asian load is 78.9%. Tianjin Petrochemical plans maintenance at the beginning of next week, and Fujia plans to restart a line at the end of the month. In Asia, GS disproportionation is shut down, Taiwan FCFC is operating at 70% capacity, Japan ENEOS restarted a small line last weekend, and Japan Idemitsu's 200,000 - ton device plans to restart at the end of the month [69]. - Balance sheet: The supply - demand is in a loose balance. The price has risen in advance, and the PXN has rebounded to around 350. Pay attention to capital changes [74]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Device load: As of December 19, the overall ethylene glycol load is 71.93%, and the coal - based load is 75%. The oil - based process has more maintenance and load - reduction [91]. - Device maintenance: Many domestic and overseas devices have maintenance plans. New devices such as Ningxia Changyi are in the process of increasing production [95][97][110]. - Profit: The profit of ethylene glycol has been compressed. The oil - based process is in a loss, and the loss of the coal - based process has increased [98]. - Import: Overseas device maintenance is high. The arrivals in November - December are not low, but may decrease in January - February [110]. - Inventory: As of December 22, the port inventory in East China is about 71.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3 tons. The polyester factory's raw material inventory days have slightly increased [116]. - Balance sheet: The supply has marginal improvements. The balance pressure in December is not large, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [121].