瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20251225

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Methanol Industry Daily Report 2025 - 12 - 25 [2] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03139610 [3] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021558 [3] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - Main contract closing price of methanol: 2162 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3] - 5 - 9 spread of methanol: 7 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [3] - Main contract open interest of methanol: 794,131 lots, down 3,810 lots [3] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: -142,531 lots, down 32,156 lots [3] - Warehouse receipt quantity of methanol: 6,748 sheets, unchanged [3] Spot Market - Price in Jiangsu Taicang: 2150 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [3] - Price in Inner Mongolia: 1870 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [3] - East - Northwest spread: 280 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [3] - Basis of Zhengzhou methanol main contract: -22 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [3] - CFR China Main Port: 252 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton [3] - CFR Southeast Asia: 320 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - FOB Rotterdam: 253 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton [3] - China Main Port - Southeast Asia spread: -68 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas: 4.25 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.16 US dollars/million British thermal units [3] Industry Situation - East China port inventory: 100.73 tons, up 20.77 tons [3] - South China port inventory: 40.52 tons, down 1.4 tons [3] - Methanol import profit: 4.53 yuan/ton, up 1.39 yuan/ton [3] - Import volume: 141.76 tons, down 19.5 tons [3] - Inland enterprise inventory: 404,000 tons, up 12,900 tons [3] - Methanol enterprise operating rate: 90.52%, up 0.71% [3] Downstream Situation - Formaldehyde operating rate: 42.58%, up 1.09% [3] - Dimethyl ether operating rate: 7.09%, down 1.89% [3] - Acetic acid operating rate: 76.51%, up 2.62% [3] - MTBE operating rate: 68.9%, down 0.85% [3] Option Market - Olefin operating rate: 89.51%, down 0.44% [3] - Methanol - to - olefin disk profit: -1020 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton [3] - 20 - day historical volatility: 13.78%, up 0.1% [3] - 40 - day historical volatility: 14.81%, down 0.02% [3] - At - the - money call option implied volatility: 17.92%, down 0.15% [3] - At - the - money put option implied volatility: 17.93%, down 0.14% [3] Group 3: Industry News - As of December 24, China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory was 40.40 tons, up 3.28% from the previous period; sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 19.36 tons, down 12.16% from the previous period [3] - As of December 24, China's total methanol port inventory was 141.25 tons, up 19.37 tons from the previous data. East China had inventory build - up, while South China had inventory drawdown. The significant inventory build - up in ports was mainly due to more output from restored capacity than capacity loss from maintenance and production cuts, increasing overall production and market supply [3] - As of December 25, the domestic methanol - to - olefin plant capacity utilization rate was 88.68%, down 0.44%. The load of MTO enterprises in East China and Northwest decreased slightly, and the weekly average industry operating rate continued to decline [3] Group 4: Core Views - Inland enterprise inventory increased. In the short - term, with relatively abundant supply, weak winter demand expectations are unfavorable for upstream production end sales, and inventory is expected to increase overall [3] - Methanol port inventory increased significantly this week, mainly in Jiangsu. Weakening inland market led to weaker提货 in the Yangtze River area of Jiangsu, contributing to significant inventory accumulation. Next week, the arrival volume of foreign vessels will remain high, and import demand may remain weak. Port methanol inventory is expected to continue to increase, subject to the unloading speed of foreign vessels and specific提货 volume changes [3] - The load of MTO enterprises in East China and Northwest decreased slightly, and the domestic methanol - to - olefin industry operating rate continued to decline this week. In the short - term, individual enterprises in East China and Northwest will continue to reduce their loads, and the industry operating rate is expected to decline slightly [3] - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2190 in the short - term [3] Group 5: Suggestions - Pay attention to the inventory data of Longzhong enterprises and ports on Wednesday [3]