2026商品风险：宏观主导的高波动与深分化

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not contain information about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the commodity market will enter a period of high volatility and deep differentiation driven by macro - logic. Each commodity sector faces unique risks, including macro - policy changes, geopolitical issues, supply - demand imbalances, and policy uncertainties [167]. - The long - term bullish logic for gold remains intact, but in 2026, there are risks of short - term corrections due to factors such as "twin - peak inflation", delayed Fed rate cuts, and high risk premiums [16]. - Non - ferrous metals may see their price centers rise, but they are exposed to risks from macro - policy fluctuations, trade protectionism, and supply - demand mismatches [46]. - Black commodities will continue to face challenges of weak demand and oversupply, with the risk of a negative feedback loop [79]. - Energy and chemical products will struggle to re - balance due to long - term geopolitical risks, overcapacity, and weak demand [108]. - Agricultural products are in an era of increased production but face uncertainties in demand, policy interventions, and inventory and supply chain risks [138]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals: Risks in Safe - Haven Assets - "Twin - Peak Inflation" and Monetary Policy: Trump's tariff policies may lead to supply - side "twin - peak inflation". If inflation rebounds, the Fed may adopt a "Higher for Longer" policy, suppressing precious metal prices [17]. - Fiscal Policy and Asset Rotation: Fiscal expansion may trigger economic recovery expectations, leading to asset rotation from safe - haven assets to risk assets. The short - term economic boost from fiscal policies may reduce the attractiveness of gold [29]. - Central Bank Buying and Investment Demand: Central banks buy gold to hedge against dollar depreciation, but some may slow down or sell gold due to high prices. The shift from central bank buying to Western ETF investment funds increases market vulnerability [33][35]. - International Political Risks: Geopolitical risks are already priced into gold. If tensions ease, the risk premium may disappear. Trade frictions may also cause price fluctuations [41]. - High Beta Trap in Silver: Silver's price is more volatile than gold. If the manufacturing recovery is weak or gold prices fall, silver prices may decline more sharply [42]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals: Macro - Policy and Supply - Demand Structural Contradictions - Macro - Environment and Price Volatility: Uncertainty in Fed monetary policy and dollar index fluctuations can directly impact non - ferrous metal prices. US trade protectionism may reshape trade flows and cause regional supply - demand imbalances [47][48]. - Supply - Side Risks: Supply shortages in copper mines, structural problems in aluminum mines, and slow capacity clearance in new energy metals are major risks. Resource nationalism also increases costs and supply chain risks [52][54][56]. - Demand - Side Challenges: Traditional demand from real estate and home appliances is weak, while emerging demand from new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and AI may not meet expectations, leading to insufficient demand [60][64][70]. - Inventory and Capital Risks: Inventory mismatches and financial risks in the capital market can amplify price fluctuations. Low - inventory environments may lead to forced - liquidation events, and large - scale capital inflows and outflows can cause price bubbles and sharp corrections [74][76]. 3.3 Black Commodities: Pains in the Post - Real Estate Era - Demand - Side Risks: The real estate market remains a major drag on demand, while manufacturing demand may slow down, and the sustainability of steel exports is uncertain. Over - interpretation of demand resilience may lead to supply - demand imbalances [80][83][85]. - Supply - Side Risks: Global iron ore supply will shift from tight balance to oversupply in 2026. Double - coking coal and alloys also face supply - side pressures [89][96]. - Policy and Macro - Level Risks: The implementation of the "anti - involution" policy is uncertain, and fiscal and monetary policies may have a diminishing marginal effect. International rules such as CBAM and US trade policies also pose risks [98][99][101]. - Profit Distribution and Negative Feedback: The profit distribution in the industrial chain is distorted, and a negative feedback loop may occur, leading to a systemic price collapse [102][105]. 3.4 Energy and Chemical Products: Difficult Re - balance in a Geopolitically Fragmented World - Geopolitical Risks: Crude oil geopolitical risks are long - term and fragmented, leading to trade flow restructuring and cost increases. OPEC+ faces challenges in maintaining production cuts, and non - OPEC+ countries have limited capacity for production increases [109][113]. - Demand - Side Constraints: The logic of oil consumption has changed, and global economic factors such as trade frictions and high - interest rates limit energy demand. Shipping and logistics risks also affect energy costs and trade flows [119][125]. - Inventory Risks: Crude oil and chemical product inventories are expected to increase, suppressing prices and weakening the impact of geopolitical premiums. High - inventory situations in chemicals will become normal [132][135]. - Policy Execution Risks: The implementation of the "anti - involution" policy is uncertain, and without effective measures, capacity clearance in the chemical industry will be difficult [137]. 3.5 Agricultural Products: Increased Production Meets Uncertain Demand - Supply - Side Risks: Major agricultural products are expected to increase in production, leading to a global supply surplus. The soybean market is highly dependent on Brazil, and any local disruptions may have a global impact [138][139]. - Demand - Side Risks: Food, feed, and industrial demand for agricultural products are all weakening. Policy uncertainties in bio - fuels also affect industrial demand [143][144]. - Policy Intervention Risks: Sino - US trade relations and bio - diesel policies are major variables that can significantly impact the agricultural market [151][156]. - Inventory and Supply Chain Risks: High inventories of US corn and soybeans suppress prices, and supply chain risks from logistics and geopolitical factors can cause price fluctuations [164]. 3.6 Summary and Response - In 2026, commodity risk management should be more forward - looking, structural, and flexible, upgrading from price risk management to volatility management and risk - return structure optimization [167]. - For precious metals, maintain long - term bullish positions but use dynamic stop - profit mechanisms and options to manage risks [168]. - For non - ferrous metals, refine futures hedging and use options to protect against extreme risks [169]. - For black commodities, shift from hedging absolute prices to managing profits and use options to manage costs and risks [170]. - For energy and chemical products, use futures to manage geopolitical risks and options to manage volatility. Take advantage of price rebounds to lock in processing fees [171]. - For agricultural products, use futures for selling hedging and options to manage price fluctuations and input costs [172].