化债下半程：成效、动向与展望

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the critical debt - resolution point in June 2027 approaches, the market refocuses on the credit risk of urban investment bonds. The report analyzes the current debt - resolution progress, new trends, and provides an outlook for the post - June 2027 situation, as well as investment strategies [1][9] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Current Debt - Resolution Progress: Reviewing Results from Data - Significant achievements but high overall debt: In 2025, debt risk has been continuously mitigated, with notable results in debt cost reduction, structure optimization, and platform list exits. However, the total debt scale remains high, and the debt ratio of most provinces is rising. As of June 30, 2025, the total "local full - scale debt" exceeded 120 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11% [10][17][19] - Diversified debt - resolution tools but crowding - out effect on investment: By December 17, 2025, 2 trillion yuan of "special bonds for replacing implicit debts" have been issued. There are also special new - added special bonds and special refinancing bonds in the issuance process. But debt resolution has crowded out project investment. As of December 5, 2025, the proportion of new - added special bonds for project investment dropped to 58% from 78% in 2024 [24][26] New Trends in the Second Half of Debt Resolution - Focus on operating debt: The central government emphasizes "optimizing debt restructuring and replacement methods" for operating debt of urban investment platforms. This may involve continued non - standard debt replacement, possible implicit debt trusteeship (not widely adopted), debt - up - shifting and unified borrowing and repayment, and individual case debt restructuring in extreme situations [34] - Transformation of urban investment and changes in bond market supply structure: In the short and medium term, traditional urban investment financing is restricted, while transportation and industrial investment platforms in quasi - urban investment platforms still have financing. The local development impetus is accelerating the transformation from traditional infrastructure to new infrastructure, science and technology innovation, and industrial investment [39] - Establishment of a long - term debt - resolution mechanism: The establishment of the Debt Management Department of the Ministry of Finance reflects the trend of upgrading government debt management. At the local level, the revitalization of state - owned assets has become a key task, but there are also potential risks and challenges [48][49] Outlook for the Second Half: What Investors Are Concerned About - View on weak - region urban investment bonds after June 2027: The systemic default risk is low, but structural differentiation is a consensus, with valuation fluctuation risk and liquidity risk being more prominent. Regional and platform - level differentiation may occur, and the government's support willingness for different types of platforms varies [56][57][58] - Risk observation: Future risk observation of urban investment bonds may shift from traditional indicators to more forward - looking and multi - dimensional sentiment monitoring, including bill overdue, non - standard sentiment, overseas bond issuance, and loan sentiment, as well as the transformation effectiveness of regional transformation entities [61] Investment Strategy - For short - to medium - duration bonds: For entities mainly relying on traditional urban investment business, the safety margin of short - to medium - duration bonds is relatively strong, but the cost - effectiveness is limited. Attention should be paid to valuation fluctuation risks. Some regions can sink to lower - rated bonds within 2 years [71] - For long - duration bonds: Focus on medium - to high - grade, highly liquid, and large - scale bonds, or some entities with good transformation results and stable cash - flow business. Avoid excessive sinking. The cost - effectiveness of extending the duration in sentiment - affected regions is relatively low [71] - For weak entities: Be more cautious about entities with weak regional endowments, unclear transformation directions, and uncertain new business prospects. Pay attention to bond issuance opportunities of some urban investment platforms in line with the development of high - tech and strategic emerging industries under the background of science - innovation bonds [73]