建筑装饰行业周报：多市场分化运行，聚焦央国企与新质生产力主线-20251225

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic [1] Core Views - Since 2025, the economy has shown signs of weak recovery, with infrastructure maintaining strong resilience and real estate focusing on stability. The issuance of special bonds has exceeded the annual plan by 104.36%, indicating effective investment expansion [6][24] - The central economic work conference has set a tone for proactive fiscal and loose monetary policies, which, along with the support of ultra-long-term special bonds, is expected to accelerate the pace of key project implementation, aiding the stabilization and recovery of demand in real estate and infrastructure [6][24] - New housing transaction area and second-hand housing transaction volume have increased month-on-month, signaling a potential bottoming out in the real estate market, although pressures remain [6][34] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The construction decoration sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly decline of 0.10% compared to a 0.28% drop in the CSI 300 [8][9] - Among the sub-sectors, professional engineering rose by 1.08%, while housing construction II increased by 0.59% [9] Industry Valuation - As of December 21, the construction decoration industry's PE (TTM) is 12.50 times, ranking in the 74.77% percentile over the past 10 years, but still low compared to other industries, ranking 30 out of 31 [18] - The PB (LF) is 0.78 times, also in a low position, ranking 30 out of 31 [18] Industry Data Tracking 1) Bond Issuance Data - The issuance of urban investment bonds decreased, with a net financing amount of -177.48 billion yuan, indicating a net withdrawal of funds [22][24] - New special bonds have seen high issuance heat, with a total of 45,916.68 billion yuan issued this year, surpassing the planned issuance [24] 2) Investment Data - From January to November, fixed asset investment reached 44.40 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [32] 3) Operational Data - The construction PMI for November was 49.60%, indicating a slight increase in new orders, with the business activity expectation index at 57.9% [34] 4) High-frequency Data - Cement shipment rates remained stable at 31.62%, while prices for both bagged and bulk cement showed differentiated fluctuations [36]