Caixin Securities·2025-12-25 10:16Group 1 - The home appliance industry has shown a cumulative increase of 8.06% in 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 10.43 percentage points, ranking 21st among 31 sub-industries [11] - The performance of various sub-sectors in the home appliance industry varies significantly, with white goods, black goods, small appliances, kitchen and bathroom appliances, lighting equipment, and appliance components showing respective changes of -1.12%, 12.55%, 9.52%, -0.74%, 11.87%, and 64.69% [11] - The industry is experiencing a high base effect from previous government subsidies, leading to a slowdown in growth rates [11] Group 2 - The home appliance sector's operating performance in 2025 has shown a trend of high performance in the first half of the year followed by a decline, with revenue and net profit growth rates of 7.34% and 10.17% respectively in the first three quarters [17] - The white goods sector remains stable, while the small appliances sector shows signs of stabilization; kitchen and lighting appliances are struggling due to a lack of growth momentum linked to the real estate market [18] - The overall market is witnessing a structural decline in product prices, with increased concentration in the industry as leading brands capture more market share [49][56] Group 3 - The government subsidy policy's marginal effect is diminishing, with retail sales of home appliances showing a year-on-year increase of 20.10% from January to October 2025, but a significant drop to -14.60% in October [37] - The sales of air conditioners and washing machines have shown steady growth, with respective online and offline retail sales growth rates of 10.00% and 8.00% for air conditioners [41] - Emerging categories like cleaning appliances are expected to perform well, with significant growth in sales for products like robotic vacuum cleaners and washing machines [44] Group 4 - The current valuation of the home appliance sector is at a low point, with a PE ratio of 16.09, which is in the 27.20th percentile of the past decade, indicating potential for upward adjustment [25] - The fluctuation in raw material prices has a limited impact on profitability, with the overall gross margin for the industry at 24.28% and net margin at 8.19% as of Q3 2025 [33] - The industry is adapting to rising costs through product structure upgrades and supply chain management, maintaining a strong profitability despite cost pressures [36]