钢材&铁矿石日报：产业格局弱稳，钢矿震荡运行-20251225

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated with a daily increase of 0.03%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, rebar supply is rising from a low level while demand is weakening, and the fundamentals are weak. The steel price is under pressure during the off - season, but policy expectations and cost support are positive factors. The subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated with a daily increase of 0.03%, trading volume decreased and open interest increased. At present, the demand for hot - rolled coil has improved, and supply is at a low level, so the supply - demand pattern has improved, providing price support. However, the demand resilience is questionable, and the inventory level is high, so the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected to continue the oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated with a daily increase of 0.58%, trading volume decreased and open interest increased. Currently, the demand for iron ore is weakening while supply remains at a high level, and the fundamentals are weak. The ore price continues to be under pressure, but the unsolved structural contradiction in the spot market and the pre - holiday restocking expectation are positive factors, and there is resistance to the downward movement. The ore price will continue to oscillate at a high level under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to November, 2.58 million urban old - fashioned residential areas across the country started renovation. 22 regions and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps have completed the annual renovation plan, and the national planned number for the year is 2.5 million [7]. - From December 1st to 21st, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.3 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 19% and a 5% increase compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 22.783 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The wholesale volume of passenger car manufacturers was 1.302 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 23% and a 13% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 28.067 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9%. The retail sales of the new - energy passenger car market were 788,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 1% and a 3% increase compared with the same period last month, with a penetration rate of 60.6%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 12.26 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18%. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger car manufacturers was 782,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 10% and a 12% decrease compared with the same period last month, with a penetration rate of 60.1%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 14.538 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25% [8]. - As of December 24th, 4 steel enterprises announced the progress of ultra - low emission transformation and evaluation and monitoring, and 245 steel enterprises have been publicly announced on the website of the China Iron and Steel Association [9]. 2. Spot Market - Rebar: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,280 yuan, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin, it was 3,170 yuan, unchanged; the national average price was 3,327 yuan, unchanged [10]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,280 yuan, up 1 yuan; in Tianjin, it was 3,180 yuan, unchanged; the national average price was 3,295 yuan, up 1 yuan [10]. - Tangshan billet: The price was 2,950 yuan, unchanged [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The price was 2,110 yuan, unchanged [10]. - PB powder (Shandong port): The price was 786 yuan, unchanged [10]. - Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis): The price was 777 yuan, unchanged [10]. - Ocean freight: The freight from Australia was 8.75 yuan, down 0.11 yuan; from Brazil, it was 23.57 yuan, down 0.26 yuan [10]. - SGX swap (current month): The price was 107.05 yuan, down 0.10 yuan [10]. - Platts Index (CFR, 62%): The price was 107.30 yuan, down 0.50 yuan [10]. 3. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,127 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.03%. The trading volume was 502,388 lots, a decrease of 335,478 lots; the open interest was 1,581,839 lots, a decrease of 15,590 lots [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,280 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.03%. The trading volume was 248,652 lots, a decrease of 114,812 lots; the open interest was 1,238,912 lots, an increase of 9,350 lots [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 778.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.58%. The trading volume was 145,809 lots, a decrease of 70,468 lots; the open interest was 567,104 lots, an increase of 13,387 lots [14]. 4. Related Charts - Steel inventory: There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil [16][17][19]. - Iron ore inventory: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports in China, including inventory and its monthly - on - monthly changes, seasonal inventory, and the inventory of 247 steel mills and domestic mines [21][22][27]. - Steel mill production: There are charts showing the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [30][33][38]. 5. Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply and demand are weakly stable. The weekly output of rebar increased by 27,100 tons, and supply continues to rise but remains at a relatively low level. Demand continues to be weak, and the weekly apparent demand and daily high - frequency transactions have declined. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season, but policy expectations and cost support are positive. It will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [39]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern has improved, and the inventory decline has widened. The weekly output increased by 16,300 tons and is at a relatively low level this year. Demand is okay, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 87,600 tons, but the daily high - frequency transactions are at a low level. The demand resilience is questionable, and the inventory level is high. It is expected to continue the oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [39]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern is weak. The end - use consumption of ore is declining, and the daily average pig iron output and imported ore daily consumption of sample steel mills have decreased. Supply remains at a high level. The ore price is under pressure, but the unsolved structural contradiction in the spot market and the pre - holiday restocking expectation are positive. It will continue to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [40].