瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20251225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The economic indicators released in November have put some pressure on the upside of A-shares, but the positive tone set by the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference has injected confidence into the market, providing strong support for the bottom of A-shares. The market is currently in a macro data vacuum period, and the impact of the external environment on A-shares has increased. The recent expectation of a dovish stance from the new Fed chair has weakened the US dollar, and the continuous strengthening of the RMB exchange rate supports the expectation of loose monetary policy in January 2026 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices: The prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM main and secondary contracts all increased. For example, the latest price of the IF main contract (2603) was 4610.6, up 14.8; the latest price of the IH main contract (2603) was 3034.0, up 8.2; the latest price of the IC main contract (2603) was 7320.6, up 70.4; the latest price of the IM main contract (2603) was 7419.0, up 85.4 [2] - Futures Spreads: The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the IF - IH current month contract spread was 1599.2, up 6.8; the IC - IF current month contract spread was 2766.0, up 59.0 [2] - Futures Holdings: The net positions of the top 20 in the futures market changed. The net position of the top 20 in the IF was -27,710.00, down 147.0; the net position of the top 20 in the IH was -16,523.00, up 212.0; the net position of the top 20 in the IC was -25,254.00, down 472.0; the net position of the top 20 in the IM was -39,737.00, up 403.0 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot Prices: The prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased. The CSI 300 was 4642.54, up 8.5; the SSE 50 was 3,032.8, up 7.7; the CSI 500 was 7,410.7, up 58.7; the CSI 1000 was 7,579.4, up 73.0 [2] - Basis: The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM also changed. The basis of the IF main contract was -31.9, up 7.1; the basis of the IH main contract was 1.2, down 0.7; the basis of the IC main contract was -90.1, up 21.5; the basis of the IM main contract was -160.4, up 18.4 [2] 3.3 Market Sentiment - Trading Volume and Margin Trading Balance: The A-share trading volume was 19,439.18 billion yuan, up 466.76 billion yuan; the margin trading balance was 25,416.83 billion yuan, up 101.20 billion yuan [2] - Northbound Trading and Repurchase: The total northbound trading volume was 1671.78 billion yuan, down 132.60 billion yuan; the repurchase (maturity volume, operation volume) was -883.0 billion yuan, up 1771.0 billion yuan [2] - Main Funds and MLF: The main funds were +53.35 billion yuan yesterday and -235.59 billion yuan today; the MLF (renewal volume, net investment) was 0 billion yuan, down 3000 billion yuan [2] - Stock Rise Ratio and Shibor: The ratio of rising stocks was 69.05%, down 6.54%; the Shibor was 1.262%, down 0.005% [2] - Option Prices and Volatility: The closing price of the IO at - the - money call option (2601) was 58.00, up 1.40; the implied volatility of the IO at - the - money call option was 14.41%, down 0.63%; the closing price of the IO at - the - money put option (2601) was 70.40, down 12.80; the implied volatility of the IO at - the - money put option was 14.41%, down 0.64% [2] - Volatility and PCR: The 20 - day volatility of the CSI 300 index was 11.82%, down 0.02%; the trading volume PCR was 50.06%, down 4.98%; the position PCR was 69.06%, up 1.08% [2] 3.4 Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - The scores of all A - shares, technical indicators, and capital indicators in the Wind market strength and weakness analysis all decreased. All A - shares were 6.80, down 0.50; the technical aspect was 6.90, down 0.60; the capital aspect was 6.80, down 0.30 [2] 3.5 Industry News - LPR Announcement: On December 22, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% (unchanged from the previous time), and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% (unchanged from the previous time) [2] - Trump's Statement: Trump hopes that the next Fed chair will cut interest rates when the economy and the market are performing well, rather than "killing the market" due to inflation concerns [2] - A - share Market Performance: A - share major indices generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.3%. Small and medium - cap stocks were stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly rebounded, and nearly 3800 stocks rose. The national defense and military industry sector strengthened significantly, while the comprehensive sector declined significantly [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - From December 24 - 25, the US, Europe, Hong Kong and other places were closed for Christmas. On December 27 at 9:30, China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size for November will be released [3]