2026年一季度全球大类资产配置展望：权益积极看多，债市由配置转向交易

Macro Environment Outlook - The global economy is in a recovery phase but remains uncertain, with the IMF predicting a decline in global economic growth from 3.2% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026 [15] - Developed economies are expected to maintain a growth rate of 1.6% in 2026, while emerging markets and developing countries will see a decrease from 4.2% to 4.0% [15] - China's economic growth is projected to slow from 4.8% in 2025 to 4.2% in 2026, reflecting a broader trend of economic deceleration [15] Equity Market Outlook - The equity market is anticipated to exhibit a "slow bull" structure in 2026, characterized by interwoven themes of technological growth, anti-involution, consumption, and low-volatility dividends [6][49] - Long-term capital is expected to continue entering the market, with liquidity remaining moderately loose for most of the time [6][49] - The A-share market has shown a steady upward trend in 2025, with significant contributions from the technology sector and policies promoting cyclical stocks [40][41] Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in 2026, with limited downward space for yields, particularly in the 10-year government bond yield projected to fluctuate between 2.0% and 1.5% [6][7] - The overall economic fundamentals are not expected to improve significantly in the short term, limiting the upward pressure on interest rates [6][7] - Investment strategies in the bond market should shift from "buy and hold" to trading to capture short-term opportunities [6][7] Commodity Market Outlook - The outlook for commodities in 2026 remains positive, particularly for gold and copper, driven by expectations of a shift in U.S. monetary policy and a global central bank gold-buying trend [6][7] - The anticipated weakening of the U.S. dollar is also expected to benefit emerging market assets [20] Investment Strategy - The recommended asset allocation for 2026 prioritizes equities over commodities, followed by bonds and cash [6][7] - The report suggests that insurance capital will continue to increase its equity investments, with an estimated inflow of around 2 trillion yuan into the A-share market in 2026 [49][50]